Feeling Lost At the Moment...

Heya,

By now you've read the new Reserve List policy. I'm not even going to bother to link it. It nullifies my earlier post, so don't bother to read it if you haven't. The Mana Drain and SCG Forums aren't a good place to say what I'm about to say, so I'll blow off steam here.

At the moment, I'm a bit lost as to what to do. For years, the campaign against the Reserve List had been growing. Signals from MaRo and ArFo encouraged the player base by acknowledging that RnD didn't like it either. Its dissolution seemed inevitable. Now, it's entrenched even stronger.

So what now? Is Vintage doomed? Will we ever get back to the 2006-2008 Golden Age? I don't know the answer to that. I'll probably advocate for more unrestrictions this spring, but right now I'm feeling deflated. It's hard to imagine more unrestrictions, more new printings, more innovative deck designs will really have any kind of impact on the Vintage player base.

Prices for Vintage and Legacy staples will only climb. Especially now. Check out this graph for Underground Sea:

(Credit: FindMagicCards.com)

It has quadrupled in price over the last five years. This coincides with Type 1.5's split from Type 1 when Legacy and Vintage were reborn. If the graph continues its trajectory, in 5 years, Underground Sea will cost $278.60. Need four for a deck? Shell out $1114.40. That's more than a Black Lotus is now, and likely will be more than a Black Lotus in five years. Don't believe me?

(Credit: FindMagicCards.com)

In the same five year period, Lotus has been stagnant. With demand poised to drop even more, there's little chance Lotus will increase in price. What does that mean? Well, theoretically, it means that in five years Legacy will be more expensive to play than Vintage is right now. Legacy players, you want your format to look like ours in five years? Stephen was worried about ten or twenty years down the road. It's not going to take nearly that long.

So again, what now? I don't know. I'm not going to loby for the repeal of the Reserve List. It's obvious that won't get anywhere right now. Maybe in ten years we can bring it up again. I have no desire to switch to MTGO. Most Legacy and Vintage players use MWS or Cockatrice right now anyway. What's the incentive to switch? Guys who have the cards already aren't going to really get excited about buying them all over again. Guys without them are going to want to compete against those who do in order to test their mettle. So where does that leave us?

I really don't know. I hear people say, "if the demand drops, the price will drop!" We're talking about mana bases here. Not some combo piece like Academy Rector or some uber-creature-of-the-moment like Morphling (which, do you realize how bad this guys sucks now after M10?). We're talking about the essentials, the icons of the GAME. Not just the format, but of Magic: The Gathering itself. The Power 9, the Duals, the Tabernacle, Shop, Bazaar, Library, they're all trophy cards- not just deck pieces.

Anyway, I'm not advocating anything at the moment. Just pointing stuff out. I really don't feel it's fruitful to talk about the Reserve List anymore. Not for another decade. I'm just feeling kind of lost at the moment with regards to Vintage and its future. At the moment, it doesn't look all that promising.

Peace,

-Troy