GenCon Predictions

Heya,

While everyone else is concentrating on the Legacy GP in Columbus, I’m going to make my predictions for the Vintage Champs at GenCon (which, if you haven’t noticed, is next week already!). For the first time since 2006, we’re going into GenCon pretty much knowing what the format is all about. It’s the first time in four years where the DCI didn’t monkey around with the format in June. So, our options are pretty clear:

Tezzeret Control
Drain Tendrils
TPS
MUD
Noble Fish
Dredge
Elephant Oath

Tez was last year’s winner. I don’t know when the last time a deck repeated at Vintage World’s. It’s been a while, and I think that trend will continue. Tez is being out maneuvered by several decks. I just don’t see it winning. Final Prediction: 1 or 2 in the Top 8.

Storm decks are making something of a comeback. I still believe that they are not positioned well in the format right now. I attribute a lot of their success to the rise of Elephant Oath. Neither Drain Tendrils nor TPS has the starch to win it this year. Final Prediction: 1 in the Top 8.

MUD is all the rage right now. Meandeck MUD is seeing play in a lot of tournaments all over the world and doing very well. This deck is easy to play, especially compared to Tez, Drain Tendrils, and TPS; therefore, opportunities for mistakes are minimized. In Vintage World’s, that’s important. MUD is well positioned to beat the Storm decks that show up and obviously has a good matchup vs. Tez. With Duplicants in the SB, it can combat Oath well enough. I think Dredge and a properly tuned Noble Fish can give MUD some headaches. I imagine most MUD lists will have 7+ anti-Ichorid cards in its SB. IMHO, this is the deck to beat. Final Prediction: 3 in Top 8, 2 in Top 4.

Noble Fish has performed well all year, but it’s on the decline at exactly the wrong time. If GenCon had been this spring, I think Noble Fish (or one of its variants) would be the deck to beat. Expect a TON of Fish decks at GenCon. Null Rods, Chalices, Wastelands, Goyfs, and Hierarchs are cheap by Vintage standards. However, I think that Dredge decks Oath decks (especially ones with Show and Tell) will stamp out most of them. Final Prediction: 1 in Top 8 (maybe)

Just as Fish is declining, Dredge is peaking out at just the right time. Terrific new cards like Sun Titan and Leyline of Sanctity are being incorporated into a very resistant, very powerful Ichorid deck. Dredge undulates between 5 to 15% of the metagame in a fairly regular, rhythmic patter. People put tons of Dredge hate in their sideboards, Dredge goes down, they forget about Dredge, Dredge comes back. It’s a pattern than has persisted since Future Sight. However, this year has shown us something different. Dredge hasn’t lost its potency. It’s held its spot in the meta despite new hate cards like Ravenous Trap and Bojuka Bog. I believe that Dredge decks that pack a mix of Unmask, Darkblast, Chalice of the Void, Leyline of Sanctity, Petrified Field, and Sun Titan will do very well this year in World’s. All that being said, almost half of every sideboard will be devoted to beating this deck. The threats are many. I don’t think this is the year of Dredge, but I do think this will be Dredge’s best year ever. Final Prediction: 1 or 2 in Top 8, 1 in Top 4.

Elephant Oath is hard for me to gauge right now. Is it on the decline? Is it just in hibernation? Are the good players who played this deck migrating to MUD? I don’t know. I do know that Dredge decks are well positioned to take out Oath this year. MUD seems to have a favorable matchup. Tez decks dropped their Confidants, so that matchup is a little harder for Oath. Oath and Noble Fish have been locking horns all year. So what to say? Oath could do really well, or it could get blown out completely. Final Prediction: 1 in Top 8, 1 in Top 4.

So I’ve got 10 decks making the top 8. That’s probably a pretty good prediction. I feel pretty confident about my MUD, MUD, Oath, Dredge final 4. From there, it will just depend on who gets matched up with what.

There’s also a chance for a rogue deck to make it in. If I were going to take a rogue deck to GenCon what would it be? Suicide Black. It’s the last thing anyone is prepared for, so I think it would have a chance of at least having a winning record. Here’s what I would build:

Main Deck:

1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
4 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
6 Swamp
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Dark Ritual
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Tendrils of Agony
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Null Rod
4 Phylactery Lich
4 Dark Confidant
4 Phyrexian Negator
2 Gatekeeper of Malakir
2 Tombstalker
2 Duress
4 Thoughtseize
1 Necropotence

Sideboard:

2 Ravenous Trap
2 Yxilid Jailer
4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Cruel Edict
2 Massacre
3 Ensnaring Bridge

Take into account I haven’t had much time to playtest that list, but I believe that no one would see it coming and it could sneak up on decks very easily. It’s Suicide Black, so there is some risk in every game, but that’s part of the excitement too. I tried working in Sadistic Sacrament and the ole’ Dark Depths/Vampite Hexmage. I didn’t like what they did to the deck, so this is what I’m most happy with.

Anyway, here’s to another year of Vintage at GenCon. Good luck to all participants!

Peace,

-Troy

2nd Place w/ Ichorid

Heya,

I took second place in a small tournament last week. Here’s the list I played:

Lands:
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Undiscovered Paradise
3 City of Brass
2 Dakmor Salvage

Artifacts:
4 Serum Powder

Enchantments:
4 Bridge From Below

Spells:
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Dread Return
1 Ancient Grudge

Dredgers:
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Golgari Thug
4 Stinkweed Imp
1 Darkblast

Non-Dredge Creatures
4 Bloodghast
4 Narcomoeba
4 Fatestitcher
3 Ichorid
2 Flame-kin Zealot
1 Sun Titan

Sideboard:
4 Chain of Vapor
4 Nature’s Claim
4 Pithing Needle
2 Darkblast
1 City of Brass

First a report, then my thoughts. It was a small tournament. Just 8 players following the M11 Launch Party. The TO decided to make it 3 rounds of Swiss with the top two players playing in the last round for a small prize. We used to routinely get over 20 players in the 2006-2008 era. The restriction of Flash, Gush, and Brainstorm along with the Time Vault errata really took its toll on the local scene. Anyway, here’s what happened as best I can remember from referencing my notes.

Round 1: John A. w/ BUG Fish

I almost never beat John. Over the last four years we’ve played each other dozens times with dozens decks. I’ve probably beat him five or six times. So, I wasn’t looking forward to this match.

Game 1-

My opening hand was this:

Bazaar
Bazaar
Bloodghast
Grave Troll
City of BrassIchorid
Bridge from Below

I won the roll, so I play first. Drop a Bazaar, activate, draw Bloodgahst and Ancient Grudge. I’m still new to Dredge, so what would be best to discard here? Grave-Troll is obvious. I could do Ichorid and Bloodghast, or two Bloodghasts. It’s game one, so I probably don’t have to worry about Crypt or Trap. I decide to discard the Troll and two Ghasts. I pass the turn.

John plays Wasteland and kills my Bazaar then passes. Discarding the Ghasts looks really smart now. I go to my draw step, dredge 6 revealing Narcomoeba, Ichorid, Grave-Troll, Serum Powder, Bloodghast, and Stinkweed Imp. I play my second Bazaar and put 3 Bloodghasts into play. Activate Bazaar. Dredge 6, revealing Thug, Serum Powder, Narcomoeba, Dakmor Salvage, and a Bridge. Dredge 5, revealing Narcomoeba, Dread Return, Undiscovered Paradise, Therapy, and Zealot. I discard 2 Trolls and 1 Bridge. I sac a Narco for Therapy calling Force. I get it. Then it’s sac’ing the other Narco and 2 Ghasts for Dread Return on Zealot for the win.

Game 2-

John sideboards in about five or six cards. I bring in 4 Chains, 4 Claims, and 1 City removing 3 Ichorids, 2 Salvages, and 4 Powders. I mulligan to 6. John mulligans to 5. My hand has

Bazaar
Bloodghast
Stinkweed Imp
Undiscovered Paradise
Chain of Vapor
Nature’s Claim

John goes first, plays a Fetch, cracks it for U. Sea and plays Ponder. No Leylines, so that’s good. I play Bazaar, activate drawing Bloodghast and Bridge from Below. I discard Imp and two Ghasts. I didn’t want to risk my Bridges yet incase he had Crypt in hand. I pass. He drops Strip Mine and kills my Bazaar then passes. I dredge for 5 on my draw revealing Narco, Bridge from Below, Grave-Troll, Dread Return, Sun Titan. I drop my Paradise bringing two Bloodghasts into play. I sac them and the Narco to return Titan. No countermagic from John, so Titan returns my Bazaar and I get my two Bloodghasts back. I activate Bazaar and dredge 6 revealing Grave-Troll, Dread Return, Fatestitcher, Narcomoeba, Bridge from Below, and Cabal Therapy. I discard Troll, Imp, and Bridge. I tap the Paradise to unearth Fatestitcher, and activate Bazaar again. Dredge 12 total. I get another Narco in play, another Bridge in the yard along with FKZ. I sac my creatures to Dread Return on FKZ and win from there. John showed me his hand. He was holding two Jailers. I guess he went for stripping my Bazaar over neutering my Graveyard. I don’t know how much of a difference it would have made in the long run.

Round 2: Corey w/MUD

Game 1-

I’m on the play. I draw garbage in my opening hand, but I have Serum Powder. I dump what I’ve got and draw a new seven. Corey doesn’t look at the cards I exiled. I was a bit surprised. I keep what I got:

Bazaar
Grave-Troll
Narcomoeba (hate that)
Grave-Troll
City of Brass
Ichorid
Undiscovered Paradise

I lay Bazaar and activate. I draw Ichorid and Serum Powder. I discard 2 Trolls and 1 Ichorid then pass. He drops Workshop, Mox, Golem. Yay. During my upkeep, I put the Ichorid trigger on the stack then activate Bazaar. I dredge 12 and get 2 Bloodghasts, 1 Narcomoeba, 1 Dread Return, 2 Cabal Therapy, 1 Thug, 2 Bridge from Below, 1 Imp, 1 City of Brass, 1 Fatestitcher. I discard the 2 Trolls and my Narcomoeba. I exile a Thug and put Ichorid into play. I put City of Brass into play and then stop to think.

I have some choices here. Right now, I’ve got 1 Ichorid, 1 Narcomoeba, and 2 Bloodghasts in play. I’ve basically stopped his attack for now, and I’ll get two tokens at EOT from Ichorid. I could Therapy or I could play Fatestitcher. I decide that I’m in a pretty decent position and don’t need to win fast, so I tap my City and sacrifice Ichorid to play Therapy calling “Sphere of Resistance.” I nab two of them. Holy crap! I also see Null Rod, Juggernaut, and City of Traitors. I pass.

He draws, plays his City, taps it, and puts a Thorn of Amethyst into play then passes. I stack Ichorid and dredge for 12 again. I get enough creatures in play that I can cast Dread Return on FKZ using the mana from my City and Paradise to win that turn. I tell him I was pretty lucky to get three lands in my opening hand.

Game 2-

I side in 4 Nature’s Claims, 1 City of Brass, and 4 Pithing needle. I mulligan to six. My opening hand has:

Bazaar
Undiscovered Paradise
Grave-Troll
Pithing Needle
Bridge from Below
Bloodghast

I figure he’s probably playing Crypt and not playing Leylines. Maybe Relic. So I keep it based on Needle. He goes first, drops Workshop, Mox, and Juggernaut. Then he passes. I draw Nature’s Claim (yes!), play Bazaar, and activate. I draw Bridge from Below and a second Undiscovered Paradise. I discard 1 Troll, 1 Bloodghast, and 1 Bridge. I pass.

He attacks me for 5 then drops Ancient Tomb. To my surprise, he taps Shop and Mox to play Jester’s Cap, then taps Tomb to activate it. He chooses my last two Bridges and an FKZ. He passes. On my upkeep, I activate Bazaar. Dredge for 6 revealing Narcomoeba, Dread Return, Bazaar of Baghdad, Grave-Troll, Bloodghast, and Stinkweed Imp. Dredge for 6 again putting Stinkweed Imp, Narcomoeba, Ancient Grudge, Pithing Needle, Thug, and a Grave-Troll. I discard 1 Bridge and two Grave-Trolls.

I play an Undiscovered Paradise and put 2 Blooghasts into play to add to my 2 Narcomoebas. I’m afraid he’s holding Crypt, so I play Pithing Needle and call “Tormod’s Crypt.” He laughs out loud, not in a “oh crap, I’m screwed” sort of way but in a “bad call, dude” sort of way. So I’m faced with some unpleasant scenarios. 1) He’s holding some way to kill my needle. Maybe he’s playing Red and has a Mountain and an Ingot Chewer in hand. 2) He’s playing Relic and my call on Crypt was useless. 3) There’s something else I’m not considering, which is very likely the case. Duplicant? Nah, why would he side that in? That’ can’t be it.

I decide to establish a strong board position and just let the chips fall where they may. I sac my 2 Narcomoebas and 1 Bloodghast to play Dread Return on a Golgari Grave-Troll. He comes into play with eight +1/+1 counters I believe. Something like that. I also make 6 tokens. I pass the turn.

He untaps, draws, plays a Strip Mine and kills my Bazaar. Then he (you’re not going to believe this) taps his Shop and Mox and plays another Cap! He taps his Tomb, and pulls out 2 Dread Returns and last FKZ. He has to attack with Juggs. So I block with my last Bloodghast and get 2 more tokens.

I untap, put UP in my hand, and Dredge for 6 on my draw. I reveal a few cards. It doesn’t matter. With my Troll and 8 tokens, I attack for lethal. It was a weird game. He did show me that he boarded in Tormod’s Crypts but thought the Caps would get him there.

Round 3 (Finals): Michael w/Helm of the Void combo

I won’t bore you with many of the details. Game 1 he opens with Leyline of the Void and Wasteland. I’ve got nothing for that, so I suggest we move to game 2. Game 2 he mulligans, then opens with double Leyline and shows me a hand with U. Sea, Spell Pierce, Brainstorm, and FoW. Yeah, so that was that. I get a few M11 packs and crack a Time Reversal, Foil Lightning Bolt, and a Mystifying Maze. Not bad. All he got was $15 for taking first.

Reflection:

I’ve already stated this elsewhere, but…

Regarding GenCon: I would not play this version at GenCon. This deck is built for absolute speed, and I blew out every opponent by turn 3 and never lost a single game until the finals. However, the GenCon crowd will be prepared for Ichorid since it is so cheap to build. Therefore, the lists packing max disruption like Chalice, Unmask, and Leyline of Sanctity are probably going to do the best.

Regarding Sun Titan: I loved having Sun Titan in the deck. Twice he scored me a turn 2 victory. I like him way better than the Sharuum Combo, especially at GenCon where Null Rods will be all over the place. He’s a big body, with Vigilance, that will give you two Landfall activations in the same turn. He is really strong in this deck, and should be considered. I was happy every time I Dread Returned him.

Regarding my Sideboard: This is the weakest part of my game. The 4 Pithing Needles didn’t do anything for me. Either I won before it was necessary to play them for Time Vault or Crypt, or I never got them in my hand. I’ll probably replace them with Leyline of Sanctity or Unmask.

Peace,

-Troy

My Take on M11

Heya,

Well, after getting a chance to actually play with the cards from M11 over the weekened, I feel I can comment on them with some degree of certainty. M11 is a great set. It's fun to draft, fun to play sealed, and very flavorful. It reminds me a lot of what Magic was like when I first started- back when most of the players had a background in RPGs.


Anyway, starting with white...


Banelsayer Angel: Not good enough for Vintage but seems playable everywhere else. Given my experience at the pre-release, the printings of Combust and Plummet should moderate BSA's dominance (if it really was dominant in the first place).


Leyline of Sanctity: This card will see Vintage play. It stops Oath, Hurkyl's, Tormod's Crypt, Tendrils of Agony, Intuition, Gifts Ungiven, Duress, Thoughtseize, and Cruel/Diabolic Edict. That's an aweful lot of important cards nullified by this thing. If Nature's Claim weren't so widely played, I think this card would be in nearly every deck. As it stands right now, I'm not sure who'll be brave enough to sacrifice 4 slots for it. Ichorid might instead of LotV or CotV. Stax might. But who else? I don't know, but I do know it will find a home somewhere soon.


Silence: I'm a little disapointed this card never found a home anywhere. With Silence, Orim's Chant, and Abeyance, you can stop a lot of cards from being played by your opponent. I guess there's just too much countermagic for a Silence.dec to work. Too bad. I like the design.


Sun Titan: I like this card a lot in Dredge and Oath. For Dredge, it can get you there by bringing back an extra Bazaar to finish dredging your deck. He'll be played in Dredge for sure. In Oath, he could be used to assemble a Vault-Key combo. Oath pilots will have to decide if that's better than just blowing up stuff with Terastadon or locking out the other player with Iona or decimating the opponent's board with Emrakul. Time will tell. Good card, tho.


War Priest of Thune: There's better cards out there for this.


BLUE


Call To Mind: This card only reinforces the point that Regrowth can come off the restricted list. Getting a single card out of the graveyard at sorcery speed is just not that great in Vintage- even if the card letting you do that is printed in the most powerful color and has a splashable casting cost. I like the art, tho.


Conundrum Sphinx: Sick with Top! But not sick enough for Vintage. :(


Foresee: This is a card that demonstrates why I think Vintage may suffer a little bit. Foresee lets you look at up to 6 cards for 4 mana. That's actually pretty good. But the sorcery speed and honestly the total mana required to play this spell make it impossible to use in Vintage. Too bad. I think it's really a powerful effect that's highly underrated in other formats.


Jace's Ingenuity: Apparently the fair casting cost for Ancestral Recall, Timetwister, and Time Walk is 5. This card's not good enough for Vintage, but at least RnD is paying homage to the old cards.


Leyline of Anticipation: This card lets you break some of the most important rules in Magic. This will change things, I just don't know how. In a Workshop deck, this thing can be quite good. Let's say you're on the Draw. With 2 Moxen, you can cast a Sphere on your opponent's upkeep before he even gets to play any spells. Suddenly, you have to take a look at Grim Monolith and wonder if it's worth using here to power out nasty turn one lock pieces. One of the biggest things this card could change is how players choose whether to play or draw. With this card in hand, being on the draw is no longer a drawback. I don't know if that's important enough to play this card. We'll find out.


Preordain: Here's the card we've been talking about for a while now. Will this be the second coming of Ponder? There's no doubt this card will get played. It's not as good as Ponder, but it's better than Portent and Impulse. Will it get restricted? Check back with me in the fall of 2011.

Scroll Thief: Ophidian gets an update! This version is much better. It still gets to deal damage and it's a merfolk. It won't see play in Vintage, but maybe in Legacy. It has some stiff competition from Cold-eyed Selkie, IMO, but its 3 toughness is definately a plus.

Stormtide Leviathan: Probably a replacement for Blazing Archon. Except, who plays Archon in Vintage?

Time Reversal: I can't believe they printed another Draw 7. I admire RnD for this. It's not good enough for Vintage (and I don't think it's good enough for Standard either). But I do admire the courage it took to print this card.

BLACK

Dark Tutelage: It's the worst parts of Phyrexian Arena mixed with the worst parts of Dark Confidant. Still, it doesn't trigger Oath of Druids. I think it deserves testing in Tez decks.

Demon of Death's Gate: I don't know if suicide black is still viable, but if it is, this card might have to be considered.

Nantuko Shade: (reprint) I don't know if suicide black is still viable, but if it is, this card might have to be considered.

Phylactery Lich: I don't know if suicide black is still viable, but if it is, this card might have to be considered.

Reassembling Skeleton: I don't know if suicide black is... just kidding. I like this card. I think it costs too much for Dredge decks, but any deck where you have to sacrifice creatures for effects might like this thing. I think the design is great.

RED:

Act of Treason: Thing thing at the common level is nuts in Limited.

Arc Runner: A lot of things are wierd about this card. First, can they make up their minds about how to template sacrificing someting at the EOT? This is the third iteration of it, and I think it's the worst. Second, for a set focussing on flavor and "making sense" in a fantasy sort of way, why is this thing an ox? The flavor text isn't any better. For a storm that hits hard, it can be easily blocked by an Eldrazi spawn and not deal any damage to a player. A powerful thunderstorm stopped by an 0/1 token. Nice. None-the-less, it is a fine Ball Lightning knockoff if you are looking for more of these types of cards for your burn deck.

Chandra's Spitfire: Speaking of burn. This may get used over Kiln Fiend since it has evasion. I'm not sure. It's still not good enough to make burn viable in Vintage. But it's getting closer.

Ember Hauler: I'm not an expert in Goblins, but I think I'd still rather have Mogg Fanatic to exile Bridges.

Hoarding Dragon: New Flash deck! Vault-Flash-Dragon ftw! Except Flash is restricted. Cool card, nice flavor.

Manic Vandal: Overcosted for Red. Should have been a Goblin.

Reverberate: People are pointing to this to show that WotC plans to skirt around the Reserve List. To me, this is a red Twincast- a card that showed me a long time ago they planned to skirt around the Reserve List. I guess it takes a little more than that to get me excited. Let's see this same treatment for Thunder Spirit and then we'll talk.

GREEN

Autumn's Veil: Autumn's Fail. All the other color hosers blow someting up. This card just outsmarts itself. I'd rather have a Green Elemental Blast. We'll see what the replacement is next year.

Back to Nature: Nice upgrade. Not sure it'll make a difference, but I'm all for this sort of spell getting more powerful.

Fauna Shaman: (AKA, Magus of the Fittest) This card is hard to evaluate. The biggest problem is the summoning sickness. But in Vintage, creatures are actually more stable than enchantments! Between Seal of Cleansing, Seal of Primordium, Krosan Grip, and Nature's Claim, there's a ton of enchantment hate out there. Fauna Shaman actually has a decent chance of living. I'd love for Combo Elves to make a hit in Vintage. With Concordant Crossroads or Lightning Greaves in play, this card is good. I personally witnessed it power with Vengevine while some guys were playtesting their Standard decks. But I'm not sure it's good enough for Vintage. Here's to hoping, though!

Mitotic Slime: I've heard this discussed in terms of a Dread Return target for Dredge. I dunno. Space is limited and it's best use would be when some of your bridges have been removed. I'd put it in the maybe pile.

Plummet: So green has a way to kill Iona now. I suppose you can play one in your SB with PtE or StP.

COLORLESS

Brittle Effigy: I'm actually somewhat high on this card. It can be tutored up with Trinket Mage. It can fit in any deck. It exiles the creature which is important. It gets around Iona's ability. The real problem is it lacks synergy with Null Rod, which is the type of deck that really needs this card.

Crystal Ball: Great in any format where Top isn't leagal.

Steel Overseer: This card could be really interesting with the Modular creatures from Mirrodin. Not viable in Vintage, but a blue based artifact deck in Legacy that takes advantage of the +1/+1 counters to evade blockers would be very interesting. He has great synergy with Etherium Sculptor and Master of Etherium. Good card.

Sword of Vengeance: Nice to know they can still print decent equipment!

Warlord's Axe: Nice to know they can still print really crappy equipment!

Voltaic Key: Autmoatically good in Standard and Extended. I can't believe they reprinted this thing.

Mystifying Maze: This is drawing comparisons to Maze of Ith. That's fair. The Ith version can't tap for mana, leaves the creature untapped, and costs $30. Mystifying can tap for mana, keeps the creature tapped, and costs 1/10 as much. The sticking point is the four mana to activate, which is one too many IMO. Mystifying Maze is a fine budget card, but in the end, it's just not as good as Maze of Ith and Karakas.

Overall, this is a great set. If I still played standard, I'd be really excited. As a Vintage player and Magic enthusiast, I'm still excited. I give RnD a thumbs up on this set. I really enjoyed the pre-release.

Peace,

-Troy