Heya,
I haven't been able to play in a tournament since early August, and it looks like I won't get another chance for a couple more weeks. That's really a bummer. However, in a couple weeks Vintage is going to change. The upcoming Zendikar set will have a huge impact, probably as much as Lorwyn and maybe as much as Future Sight. I'll be posting a set review after the launch parties and I'll also be working on a small-scale metagame report for July/August. Steve will resume the large-scale meta reports on SCG.
Peace,
-Troy
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
The New Tez
As I said in a previous post, the new Tez build would be decided just before GenCon. It turns out, that indeed it was. Here is the Tez list that won the World Champs:
1st – Itou Hiromichi Tezzeret Control
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Tinker
1 Time Vault
1 Time Walk
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Brainstorm
1 Thirst for Knowledge
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Mana Crypt
1 Sol Ring
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Inkwell Leviathan
4 Dark Confidant
1 Fire // Ice
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
4 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
1 Magus of the Unseen
1 Misdirection
1 Voltaic Key
1 Tezzeret the Seeker
1 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Rack and Ruin
2 Island
2 Volcanic Island
4 Underground Sea
1 Swamp
2 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
2 Sensei’s Divining Top
1 Darkblast
Sideboard
2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Pyroblast
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Trinisphere
2 Pyroclasm
1 Rack and Ruin
2 Arcane Laboratory
1 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Darkblast
I suspect this will become the base list people start working with from here-on in. There are certain Main Deck slots I think he devoted specifically to the GenCon meta. For instance, Magus of the Unseen and Rack & Ruin were there to stop the top contenders. You could even make the case for Fire//Ice and Darkblast as metagame calls. Though, I think Darkblast will become a staple for Tez decks in the Rod vs. Vault vs. Welder matchup going forward.
Here are the “innovations” I want to focus on for a now: 4 Dark Confidant, 2 Sensei’s Divining Top, 1 Swamp.
Dark Confidant is the natural go-to draw engine people will gravitate towards following the restriction of Thirst For Knowledge- even though Night’s Whisper is more explosive, more immediate, and less life intensive. However, this deck has an average CMC of around 1.6 pre-board and only nine cards in the Main with a CMC of 4 or more. The life loss will only matter in longer games and only really against agro decks like BUG Fish, Meandeck Beatz, GW Beatz, Shop Agro, and Christmas Beatings.
So what does this mean for building in the future. The 2-4 open slots may best be filled by Duress in a generic meta. The slow life attrition from Fetch Lands, FoW, Vamp Tutor, and Bob mean that Thoughseize and maybe Imperial Seal are probably out as options. Duress can trade your one drop for your opponent’s best card and buy you a couple turns to set up. Seal is slow, costs life, and interrupts tempo.
Moving on to SDT. The 2 Tops Itou included can help smooth out any massive loss of life and make up for the restrictions of Ponder and Brainstorm. Where Bob goes, Top is sure to follow it seems. One top used to be fairly standard in Tez builds, as Menendian’s Composite Tez lists have shown. But now with 2, Itou is making it a feature of his deck. Counting the Tops, Itou has build at deck that has 9 cards that either manipulate the top of his library or tutor cards into play/his hand: Ponder, Merchant Scroll, Brainstorm, Tinker, Mystical Tutor, Vampiric Tutor, Demonic Tutor, and 2 Sensei’s Divining Tops. While Bob, Time Walk, FoF and Ancestral, still gain him card advantage, it’s beginning to become clear that there’s a shift in Vintage priorities from straight card advantage to card selection. This is why I think Dark Confidant will remain the draw engine of choice until someone finds a way to exploit the life attrition it causes. Confidant makes the Card Selection priority even better.
The last thing I want to highlight is the inclusion of a basic swamp. None of Menendian’s composite lists have one. This is something new. With Bob in the mix and so important to the deck running smoothly, I’m guessing that Itou wanted to avoid the complications caused by Wasteland and Magus of the Moon. With his basic Swamp, he is assured that he will be able to cast all eight of his black spells almost regardless of his opponent’s board position (although obviously Strip Mine w/ Crucible would shut it down). I see this as an insurance policy for the deck. I doubt he fetched it out too often during the tournament, but he perceived the threat to non-basics to be high enough that it warranted playing a basic of his secondary color. In the Null Rod/Wasteland infested metagame we are likely to see in the next few months, I don’t believe it’s a bad idea at all. Two XG Beatz decks made the top 8 at World’s. There’s no doubt that green-based agro/disruption decks are going to be a force at least until Zendikar comes out, and perhaps even after then.
Meta-specific decisions for Tez Control builders are becoming harder and harder to implement. They are basically left with 4 open slots to hone their deck to their individual environment. While that may sometimes be a weakness, Tez Control has shown that is resilient to both new printings and card restrictions. It will be fun to see how it evolves over the next few months and just how much influence Itou has on the world-wide meta.
Peace,
-Troy
1st – Itou Hiromichi Tezzeret Control
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Tinker
1 Time Vault
1 Time Walk
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Brainstorm
1 Thirst for Knowledge
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Mana Crypt
1 Sol Ring
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Inkwell Leviathan
4 Dark Confidant
1 Fire // Ice
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
4 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
1 Magus of the Unseen
1 Misdirection
1 Voltaic Key
1 Tezzeret the Seeker
1 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Rack and Ruin
2 Island
2 Volcanic Island
4 Underground Sea
1 Swamp
2 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
2 Sensei’s Divining Top
1 Darkblast
Sideboard
2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Pyroblast
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Trinisphere
2 Pyroclasm
1 Rack and Ruin
2 Arcane Laboratory
1 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Darkblast
I suspect this will become the base list people start working with from here-on in. There are certain Main Deck slots I think he devoted specifically to the GenCon meta. For instance, Magus of the Unseen and Rack & Ruin were there to stop the top contenders. You could even make the case for Fire//Ice and Darkblast as metagame calls. Though, I think Darkblast will become a staple for Tez decks in the Rod vs. Vault vs. Welder matchup going forward.
Here are the “innovations” I want to focus on for a now: 4 Dark Confidant, 2 Sensei’s Divining Top, 1 Swamp.
Dark Confidant is the natural go-to draw engine people will gravitate towards following the restriction of Thirst For Knowledge- even though Night’s Whisper is more explosive, more immediate, and less life intensive. However, this deck has an average CMC of around 1.6 pre-board and only nine cards in the Main with a CMC of 4 or more. The life loss will only matter in longer games and only really against agro decks like BUG Fish, Meandeck Beatz, GW Beatz, Shop Agro, and Christmas Beatings.
So what does this mean for building in the future. The 2-4 open slots may best be filled by Duress in a generic meta. The slow life attrition from Fetch Lands, FoW, Vamp Tutor, and Bob mean that Thoughseize and maybe Imperial Seal are probably out as options. Duress can trade your one drop for your opponent’s best card and buy you a couple turns to set up. Seal is slow, costs life, and interrupts tempo.
Moving on to SDT. The 2 Tops Itou included can help smooth out any massive loss of life and make up for the restrictions of Ponder and Brainstorm. Where Bob goes, Top is sure to follow it seems. One top used to be fairly standard in Tez builds, as Menendian’s Composite Tez lists have shown. But now with 2, Itou is making it a feature of his deck. Counting the Tops, Itou has build at deck that has 9 cards that either manipulate the top of his library or tutor cards into play/his hand: Ponder, Merchant Scroll, Brainstorm, Tinker, Mystical Tutor, Vampiric Tutor, Demonic Tutor, and 2 Sensei’s Divining Tops. While Bob, Time Walk, FoF and Ancestral, still gain him card advantage, it’s beginning to become clear that there’s a shift in Vintage priorities from straight card advantage to card selection. This is why I think Dark Confidant will remain the draw engine of choice until someone finds a way to exploit the life attrition it causes. Confidant makes the Card Selection priority even better.
The last thing I want to highlight is the inclusion of a basic swamp. None of Menendian’s composite lists have one. This is something new. With Bob in the mix and so important to the deck running smoothly, I’m guessing that Itou wanted to avoid the complications caused by Wasteland and Magus of the Moon. With his basic Swamp, he is assured that he will be able to cast all eight of his black spells almost regardless of his opponent’s board position (although obviously Strip Mine w/ Crucible would shut it down). I see this as an insurance policy for the deck. I doubt he fetched it out too often during the tournament, but he perceived the threat to non-basics to be high enough that it warranted playing a basic of his secondary color. In the Null Rod/Wasteland infested metagame we are likely to see in the next few months, I don’t believe it’s a bad idea at all. Two XG Beatz decks made the top 8 at World’s. There’s no doubt that green-based agro/disruption decks are going to be a force at least until Zendikar comes out, and perhaps even after then.
Meta-specific decisions for Tez Control builders are becoming harder and harder to implement. They are basically left with 4 open slots to hone their deck to their individual environment. While that may sometimes be a weakness, Tez Control has shown that is resilient to both new printings and card restrictions. It will be fun to see how it evolves over the next few months and just how much influence Itou has on the world-wide meta.
Peace,
-Troy
Monday, August 10, 2009
Diamond in the Rough #1: Abolish
Heya,
This is the start of a series of articles on cards that have practical applications in Vintage but either haven’t found the right deck yet or are still waiting for a critical mass of printings to happen in order to become relevant. This is more or less a “cards to watch” series that looks at spells and effects that meet the Vintage requirements for power and utility but for whatever reason, have not made an impact.
Today I’m looking at Abolish. The card reads, “1WW, Instant, You may discard a Plains card rather than pay Abolish's mana cost. Destroy target artifact or enchantment.” Okay, so what have we got here?
Instant speed? Check
Alternate casting cost? Check
Affects critical cards commonly played in Vintage? Yep
In popular deck lists? No way
Sounds like a Diamond in the Rough! It’s kind of funny, but Disenchant effects are amazingly powerful right now, and likely always will be going forward. Seal of Primordium, Seal of Cleansing, and Qasali Pridemage are seeing a good amount of play in Vintage right now. So cards with Abolish’s effect are generally accepted as solid utility cards. That’s score one point in favor of this card.
Pitching a land is sometimes a problem and sometimes not in Vintage. In the opening grip, it’s usually pretty bad. You need at least your first two land drops to get your deck running. However, as the game goes on, those extra lands become less relevant and playing spells becomes more important. You’re likely to draw into land you don’t need. Abolish gives you the ability to tap out to play some other card, then when you opponent thinks your weak, give you to option to pitch a card you don’t need to play a powerful effect. In a color like white, tapping out is necessary in almost every game at some point. Abolish can let you bait your opponent into exposing a critical card that you can blow away on his end step. Score half a point here.
But what’s keeping Abolish back? Well, honestly, there’s just way too many more efficient cards out there that do basically the same thing. The aforementioned Seals along with more dedicated cards like Oxidize, Ancient Grudge, Krosan Grip, etc are just better at destroying relevant cards. It just lacks a good hard casing cost, cantrip, or some other intangible to make it a viable choice over other cards right now.
So why might Abolish someday be a card that shines? The answer is speed. Every few sets, we get some new mana acceleration card. Elvish Archdruid, Simian Spirit Guide, Rite of Flame, and Chrome Mox are some more recent examples. These are going to keep adding up. Examine how much faster Vintage is today vs. oh let’s say the Mask block era when Abolish was printed. There are so many more ways to generate card advantage and mana on turns 1, 2, and 3 now than there ever were back then. Chances are good, in three to five years, there will be even more plays possible on the opening turns. Thus cards like Abolish will gain more importance. You may not have time to get to your second or third land drop before a Time Vault combo is established or a turn 1 Oath + Time Walk combo is pulled off. It is very conceivable that some time down the road, being able to kill an artifact or enchantment before your first land drop becomes one of the most important plays you can make.
I’m not telling you to run out and buy a playset of these now. But what I am telling you is to not forget about this card down the road. You never know when it might become the next big tech.
Peace,
-Troy
This is the start of a series of articles on cards that have practical applications in Vintage but either haven’t found the right deck yet or are still waiting for a critical mass of printings to happen in order to become relevant. This is more or less a “cards to watch” series that looks at spells and effects that meet the Vintage requirements for power and utility but for whatever reason, have not made an impact.
Today I’m looking at Abolish. The card reads, “1WW, Instant, You may discard a Plains card rather than pay Abolish's mana cost. Destroy target artifact or enchantment.” Okay, so what have we got here?
Instant speed? Check
Alternate casting cost? Check
Affects critical cards commonly played in Vintage? Yep
In popular deck lists? No way
Sounds like a Diamond in the Rough! It’s kind of funny, but Disenchant effects are amazingly powerful right now, and likely always will be going forward. Seal of Primordium, Seal of Cleansing, and Qasali Pridemage are seeing a good amount of play in Vintage right now. So cards with Abolish’s effect are generally accepted as solid utility cards. That’s score one point in favor of this card.
Pitching a land is sometimes a problem and sometimes not in Vintage. In the opening grip, it’s usually pretty bad. You need at least your first two land drops to get your deck running. However, as the game goes on, those extra lands become less relevant and playing spells becomes more important. You’re likely to draw into land you don’t need. Abolish gives you the ability to tap out to play some other card, then when you opponent thinks your weak, give you to option to pitch a card you don’t need to play a powerful effect. In a color like white, tapping out is necessary in almost every game at some point. Abolish can let you bait your opponent into exposing a critical card that you can blow away on his end step. Score half a point here.
But what’s keeping Abolish back? Well, honestly, there’s just way too many more efficient cards out there that do basically the same thing. The aforementioned Seals along with more dedicated cards like Oxidize, Ancient Grudge, Krosan Grip, etc are just better at destroying relevant cards. It just lacks a good hard casing cost, cantrip, or some other intangible to make it a viable choice over other cards right now.
So why might Abolish someday be a card that shines? The answer is speed. Every few sets, we get some new mana acceleration card. Elvish Archdruid, Simian Spirit Guide, Rite of Flame, and Chrome Mox are some more recent examples. These are going to keep adding up. Examine how much faster Vintage is today vs. oh let’s say the Mask block era when Abolish was printed. There are so many more ways to generate card advantage and mana on turns 1, 2, and 3 now than there ever were back then. Chances are good, in three to five years, there will be even more plays possible on the opening turns. Thus cards like Abolish will gain more importance. You may not have time to get to your second or third land drop before a Time Vault combo is established or a turn 1 Oath + Time Walk combo is pulled off. It is very conceivable that some time down the road, being able to kill an artifact or enchantment before your first land drop becomes one of the most important plays you can make.
I’m not telling you to run out and buy a playset of these now. But what I am telling you is to not forget about this card down the road. You never know when it might become the next big tech.
Peace,
-Troy
Monday, August 3, 2009
May/June 2009 Large-scale Metagame Report
Heya,
Last week I did a report on the small-scale Vintage metagame for May and June of 2009. Due to a flood of very interesting topics he’d rather write about, Stephen Menendian asked me to do a write-up about the large-scale metagame for the same bi-monthly period. I agreed, and so for these two months and these two months only, I’ll be reporting on the results of the big tournaments. I hope that I am able to produce a report that meets the standard he sets. It will probably be briefer than Steve’s usual reports since much of what I said in the small-scale meta report (link here: ) is also true of the large-scale meta. The important thing about this bi-montly report is that it’s the last one prior to the June 2009 B/R changes. It also marks one full year since the “apocalypse” when Gush and Flash were restricted. Anyway, here we go-
The May/June Metgame Top 8 Breakdown by Archetype:
There were 13 tournaments reported with 33 or more players (at least 6 rounds of Swiss) for a total of 103 decks. One deck was not reported. Here are the top 8 results by Archetype:
27 Tez Control (1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,8) [includes 2 Remora Tez, 2 Tezless Tez, and 2 Toughtcast Tez]
13 Drain Tendrils (1,1,2,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,6,8,8)
12 Ichorid (1,2,2,3,4,7,7,7,8,8,8,8)
8 MUD (1,2,4,4,4,5,7,7)
4 Stax (1,2,4,6)
4 BUG Fish (5,5,7,8)
4 UR Fish (2,2,5,8)
4 Oath (3,4,4,8)
3 Painter Combo (2,4,5)
2 ANT (3,7)
2 TPS (3,5)
2 Bomberman (6,7)
2 Suicide Black (5,7)
2 Pitch Long (3,7)
1 Drain Freeze (1)
1 Faeries (1)
1 Selkie Strike
1 Grow
1 Merfolk
1 Stiflenought
1 Mystic Meditation
1 Etherium Workshop
1 Long.dec
1 RBW Agro
1 UW Fish
Remarks:
-Tez decks dominated once again, however they did receive a bit of a challenge from Drain Tendrils. Looking back on Steve’s last report, there were only two Drain Trendrils lists that made the top 8. This marks a massive upswing in that archetypes performance and one that Steve predicted last year [http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/15991_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Vintage_Apocalypse_The_New_Metagame_Uncovered.html]. We’ll see if Drain Tendrils sticks around or was just a flash in the pan that no one saw coming.
-After nearly vanishing from the top 8 in the last report, Oath returns with 4 entries. That represents a 400% improvement from last time. However, Control Slaver is gone completely. I doubt it will ever return thanks to the restriction of Thirst for Knowledge. Maybe with Strategic Planning or Careful Consideration, but I highly doubt it. That’s a sad thing for me. I hate to see an archetype vanish like that, especially if it’s one the DCI wasn’t even targeting with its B/R announcement.
-The last thing I want to highlight is the emergence of some unexpected agro decks. Faeries, Merfolk, Suicide Black, and Selkies all made the top 8. Could they be the new Goblins and Elves? Lorwyn/Shadowmoor Block added a multitude of powerful tribal cards that dominated Standard over the last two years. It’s interesting that those cards may be filtering all the way down to Vintage. We’ll see if these decks pop up again once the meta sorts itself out post-GenCon.
The number of decks that make the top 8 in each bi-monthly report will vary depending upon the number of tournaments. So sheer numbers don’t give a complete picture. Instead, it is helpful to look at percentages. Here is the percentage breakdown of the top 8 by archetype for May/June 2009:
Tez Control: 26%
Drain Tendrils: 12.6%
Ichorid 11.6%
MUD: 7.8%
The Field: 42%
Remarks:
-Moving up from 30% in the last report, The Field grew to 42% of the metagame. Any archetype getting less than 5% of the top 8 pie I put in “The Field” category. I interpret this increase to mean that people were trying anything they could to unseat Tez control these last two months. Obviously, it didn’t work. Tez decks took a share of the top 8 twice the size of the next best performing archetype. Just for historical reference, Gush decks- AS AN ENGINE- only made up 25% of the top 8 at their peak. Just think about that. One archetype performed better than an entire “pillar” of the format. It beat GAT, Gush Tendrils, Next Level Doomsday, Tyrant Oath, and MSPaint combined! That is absolutely astounding!
-Ichorid dropped about four percentage points from its last showing. I noticed a greater percentage of decks featuring Leyline of the Void over Yixlid Jailer (or playing both) according to Morphling.de. IMHO, Leyline is a much better Ichorid Hate card than Jailer, so when the number of Leylines go up, I expect the number of Ichorid decks making the top 8 to go down. However, Ichorid is performing quite well and is still a force to be reckoned with. Ignore it at your own peril.
The May/June Metgame Top 8 Breakdown by Engine:
In my small-scale report I call engines “pillars” to match Tom LaPille’s terminology. However, Stephen has used the word engine for a long time and since I am just the sub this time around, I will keep with his tradition. The top 8 percentage breakdown by engine is as follows:
Mana Drain: 45.6%
Null Rod: 14.6%
Workshop: 12.6%
Bazaar: 11.6%
Dark Ritual: 8.7%
Other: 6.7%
Remarks:
-I know you’re thinking the same thing I am. No change here. Mana Drains tripled-up on the next best engine thanks in part to the surge by Drain Tendrils. This is a feat never accomplished by cards like Gush or Flash. There is a whopping 31% difference between first and second place. On average, almost half of any top 8 in a 33+ man tournament will feature drain decks. Throw in 1 Rod deck and 1 Shop deck and Bazzars, Rituals, and Other have to fight for the last two open positions.
-The 45.6% take of the top 8 for Drains represents a modest 3% gain from the previous report. That’s probably within the margin for error, but the fact that you can go back to the July/August report of 2008 (prior to Tez, Inkwell, and Time Vault errata) and see that Drain decks made up nearly 37% of the top 8 metagame is testament to its dominance. For one full year, Mana Drain has been the top engine and has at least doubled up on the next best thing.
-Real quickly, some thoughts on Tez and Time Vault. There’s a lot of people who want to blame Time Vault for Mana Drain’s dominance. The numbers I cited above suggest that people are misplacing their blame. At best, Time Vault made about an 8% difference and that’s excluding any effect Tezzeret the Seeker and Inkwell Leviathan had on the metagame. Time Vault is not and has not been the problem. Hell, even Mana Drain is not the problem. The B/R decisions of June 2008 was the problem, and I don’t believe it has been corrected by the June 2009 decisions.
The May/June Metgame Tournament Winner Breakdown by Archetype:
Making the top 8 in a large tournament is an exhilarating achievement. It gives you a sense of accomplishment and sometimes can result in some nifty prizes. However, the big money is in winning the tournaments, and that’s where we see where the best decks truly are. The winners by archetype for this report are:
Tez Control: 6 wins
Drain Tendrils: 2 Wins
Ichorid: 1 Win
MUD: 1 WinStax: 1 Win
Drain Freeze: 1 Win
Faeries: 1 Win
And a breakdown by percentage goes like this:
Tez Control: 46.2%
Drain Tendrils: 15.4%
Ichorid: 7.7%
MUD: 7.7%
Stax: 7.7%
Drain Freeze: 7.7%
Faeries: 7.7%
Remarks:
-Fish continued to languish. There were no wins for Fish in this report nor in the last one. In fact, I had to go back to January/February 2009 report to find any wins for Fish decks. This has changes since recent the B/R announcement, but it means that Fish went nealy 5 months without a win. That’s a long dry spell.
-One can think of Drain Freeze as an extension of Drain Tendrils giving that archetype three wins and a 23% share of the top 8, but if you do, Tez still won twice as many tournaments as the next best archetype. It only made up 26% of the top 8 but makes up 46% of the winners. During the May/June 2009 era, if you wanted to win, you pretty much had to play Tez. Nothing else performed nearly as consistently. For me personally, I prefer my metagames to be diverse and uncertain. These numbers for Tez are pretty disgusting from that point of view, but not nearly as disgusting as the next set.
The May/June Metgame Tournament Winner Breakdown by Engine:
The number of wins by each engine for May/June was:
Mana Drain: 9 Wins
Workshop: 2 Wins
Bazaar: 1 Win
Other: 1 Win
Null Rod: 0 Wins
Dark Ritual: 0 Wins
And a breakdown by percentage looks like this:
Mana Drain: 69.2%
Workshop: 15.4%
Bazaar: 7.7%
Other: 7.7%
Null Rod: 0%
Dark Ritual: 0%
Remarks:
-Improving from the last report Workshop decks managed to win a couple tournaments. I’m a little surprised to see MUD making the top 8 so much with all the artifact hate going around. It’s a good thing though, IMO.
-The real story (surprise, surprise) was Mana Drain. It took over 69% of the wins! I regard 13 tournaments as a relatively small sample, but it’s still enough to get a solid feel for what’s going on out there. One almost has to admire the utter domination of Mana Drain. It’s certainly of historic proportions and something that will be discussed for years and years to come. It’s legendary. It really is. Hasn’t it been since the Keeper or Academy days since we’ve seen something like this?
-The funny thing is, 69.2% is actually a decline from the last report. In March/April, Mana Drain decks won 11 tournaments or 73.3% of all tournaments by my count. Those who fear Gush and/or Flash being unrestricted, please explain to me how they were EVER more broken than this?
Now, I’ve been somewhat negative on Tez and Drain decks in this article. I don’t want anyone who plays those decks to think I’m disparaging them. Nope. I think they made the best decision and deck choice for this metagame. The point is to win. Drain decks, and Tez decks specifically, win. Choosing anything else is rolling the dice. Drain decks were the only really logical choice and have been for 12 consecutive months. I say “Bravo!” to all those who have been playing and winning with Mana Drain. However, it is my personal desire to see the metagame shift to something different and more diverse. It’s happened a little bit already. There’s some nascent Fish builds that are doing well. We’ll see if it continues now that TFK is out of the mix and Enlightened Tutor and Crop Rotation are in.
Thanks for reading. I know there’s not much to respond to in an article like this, but if you have any questions, I‘ll be happy to try to answer them. Steve’s the real expert, so Steve, you’re welcome to chime in with anything. Until next time,
Peace,
-Troy
Sources:
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1050
Philadelphia 09.05.2009, 55 Players, Remora Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1051
Annecy, 351 players, MUD Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1057
Catalan Vintage League 09.05.2009, 70 players, Drain Tendrils Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1061
Blue Bell 23.05.2009, 33 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1063
LVV 5, 36 players, Drain Tendrils Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1064
Lega WL #10, 40 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1065
Zurich, 50 players, Ichorid Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1071
Philadelphia 06.06.2009, 65 players, Stax Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1072
Madrid 31.05.2009, 46 players, Drain Freeze Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1076
Breda, 42 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1079
Madrid 14.06.2009, 38 players, Thoughtcast Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1080
Catalan Vintage League 14.06.2009, 58 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1086
Boulder, 40 players, Faeries Won (one deck missing)
Last week I did a report on the small-scale Vintage metagame for May and June of 2009. Due to a flood of very interesting topics he’d rather write about, Stephen Menendian asked me to do a write-up about the large-scale metagame for the same bi-monthly period. I agreed, and so for these two months and these two months only, I’ll be reporting on the results of the big tournaments. I hope that I am able to produce a report that meets the standard he sets. It will probably be briefer than Steve’s usual reports since much of what I said in the small-scale meta report (link here: ) is also true of the large-scale meta. The important thing about this bi-montly report is that it’s the last one prior to the June 2009 B/R changes. It also marks one full year since the “apocalypse” when Gush and Flash were restricted. Anyway, here we go-
The May/June Metgame Top 8 Breakdown by Archetype:
There were 13 tournaments reported with 33 or more players (at least 6 rounds of Swiss) for a total of 103 decks. One deck was not reported. Here are the top 8 results by Archetype:
27 Tez Control (1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,8) [includes 2 Remora Tez, 2 Tezless Tez, and 2 Toughtcast Tez]
13 Drain Tendrils (1,1,2,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,6,8,8)
12 Ichorid (1,2,2,3,4,7,7,7,8,8,8,8)
8 MUD (1,2,4,4,4,5,7,7)
4 Stax (1,2,4,6)
4 BUG Fish (5,5,7,8)
4 UR Fish (2,2,5,8)
4 Oath (3,4,4,8)
3 Painter Combo (2,4,5)
2 ANT (3,7)
2 TPS (3,5)
2 Bomberman (6,7)
2 Suicide Black (5,7)
2 Pitch Long (3,7)
1 Drain Freeze (1)
1 Faeries (1)
1 Selkie Strike
1 Grow
1 Merfolk
1 Stiflenought
1 Mystic Meditation
1 Etherium Workshop
1 Long.dec
1 RBW Agro
1 UW Fish
Remarks:
-Tez decks dominated once again, however they did receive a bit of a challenge from Drain Tendrils. Looking back on Steve’s last report, there were only two Drain Trendrils lists that made the top 8. This marks a massive upswing in that archetypes performance and one that Steve predicted last year [http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/15991_So_Many_Insane_Plays_The_Vintage_Apocalypse_The_New_Metagame_Uncovered.html]. We’ll see if Drain Tendrils sticks around or was just a flash in the pan that no one saw coming.
-After nearly vanishing from the top 8 in the last report, Oath returns with 4 entries. That represents a 400% improvement from last time. However, Control Slaver is gone completely. I doubt it will ever return thanks to the restriction of Thirst for Knowledge. Maybe with Strategic Planning or Careful Consideration, but I highly doubt it. That’s a sad thing for me. I hate to see an archetype vanish like that, especially if it’s one the DCI wasn’t even targeting with its B/R announcement.
-The last thing I want to highlight is the emergence of some unexpected agro decks. Faeries, Merfolk, Suicide Black, and Selkies all made the top 8. Could they be the new Goblins and Elves? Lorwyn/Shadowmoor Block added a multitude of powerful tribal cards that dominated Standard over the last two years. It’s interesting that those cards may be filtering all the way down to Vintage. We’ll see if these decks pop up again once the meta sorts itself out post-GenCon.
The number of decks that make the top 8 in each bi-monthly report will vary depending upon the number of tournaments. So sheer numbers don’t give a complete picture. Instead, it is helpful to look at percentages. Here is the percentage breakdown of the top 8 by archetype for May/June 2009:
Tez Control: 26%
Drain Tendrils: 12.6%
Ichorid 11.6%
MUD: 7.8%
The Field: 42%
Remarks:
-Moving up from 30% in the last report, The Field grew to 42% of the metagame. Any archetype getting less than 5% of the top 8 pie I put in “The Field” category. I interpret this increase to mean that people were trying anything they could to unseat Tez control these last two months. Obviously, it didn’t work. Tez decks took a share of the top 8 twice the size of the next best performing archetype. Just for historical reference, Gush decks- AS AN ENGINE- only made up 25% of the top 8 at their peak. Just think about that. One archetype performed better than an entire “pillar” of the format. It beat GAT, Gush Tendrils, Next Level Doomsday, Tyrant Oath, and MSPaint combined! That is absolutely astounding!
-Ichorid dropped about four percentage points from its last showing. I noticed a greater percentage of decks featuring Leyline of the Void over Yixlid Jailer (or playing both) according to Morphling.de. IMHO, Leyline is a much better Ichorid Hate card than Jailer, so when the number of Leylines go up, I expect the number of Ichorid decks making the top 8 to go down. However, Ichorid is performing quite well and is still a force to be reckoned with. Ignore it at your own peril.
The May/June Metgame Top 8 Breakdown by Engine:
In my small-scale report I call engines “pillars” to match Tom LaPille’s terminology. However, Stephen has used the word engine for a long time and since I am just the sub this time around, I will keep with his tradition. The top 8 percentage breakdown by engine is as follows:
Mana Drain: 45.6%
Null Rod: 14.6%
Workshop: 12.6%
Bazaar: 11.6%
Dark Ritual: 8.7%
Other: 6.7%
Remarks:
-I know you’re thinking the same thing I am. No change here. Mana Drains tripled-up on the next best engine thanks in part to the surge by Drain Tendrils. This is a feat never accomplished by cards like Gush or Flash. There is a whopping 31% difference between first and second place. On average, almost half of any top 8 in a 33+ man tournament will feature drain decks. Throw in 1 Rod deck and 1 Shop deck and Bazzars, Rituals, and Other have to fight for the last two open positions.
-The 45.6% take of the top 8 for Drains represents a modest 3% gain from the previous report. That’s probably within the margin for error, but the fact that you can go back to the July/August report of 2008 (prior to Tez, Inkwell, and Time Vault errata) and see that Drain decks made up nearly 37% of the top 8 metagame is testament to its dominance. For one full year, Mana Drain has been the top engine and has at least doubled up on the next best thing.
-Real quickly, some thoughts on Tez and Time Vault. There’s a lot of people who want to blame Time Vault for Mana Drain’s dominance. The numbers I cited above suggest that people are misplacing their blame. At best, Time Vault made about an 8% difference and that’s excluding any effect Tezzeret the Seeker and Inkwell Leviathan had on the metagame. Time Vault is not and has not been the problem. Hell, even Mana Drain is not the problem. The B/R decisions of June 2008 was the problem, and I don’t believe it has been corrected by the June 2009 decisions.
The May/June Metgame Tournament Winner Breakdown by Archetype:
Making the top 8 in a large tournament is an exhilarating achievement. It gives you a sense of accomplishment and sometimes can result in some nifty prizes. However, the big money is in winning the tournaments, and that’s where we see where the best decks truly are. The winners by archetype for this report are:
Tez Control: 6 wins
Drain Tendrils: 2 Wins
Ichorid: 1 Win
MUD: 1 WinStax: 1 Win
Drain Freeze: 1 Win
Faeries: 1 Win
And a breakdown by percentage goes like this:
Tez Control: 46.2%
Drain Tendrils: 15.4%
Ichorid: 7.7%
MUD: 7.7%
Stax: 7.7%
Drain Freeze: 7.7%
Faeries: 7.7%
Remarks:
-Fish continued to languish. There were no wins for Fish in this report nor in the last one. In fact, I had to go back to January/February 2009 report to find any wins for Fish decks. This has changes since recent the B/R announcement, but it means that Fish went nealy 5 months without a win. That’s a long dry spell.
-One can think of Drain Freeze as an extension of Drain Tendrils giving that archetype three wins and a 23% share of the top 8, but if you do, Tez still won twice as many tournaments as the next best archetype. It only made up 26% of the top 8 but makes up 46% of the winners. During the May/June 2009 era, if you wanted to win, you pretty much had to play Tez. Nothing else performed nearly as consistently. For me personally, I prefer my metagames to be diverse and uncertain. These numbers for Tez are pretty disgusting from that point of view, but not nearly as disgusting as the next set.
The May/June Metgame Tournament Winner Breakdown by Engine:
The number of wins by each engine for May/June was:
Mana Drain: 9 Wins
Workshop: 2 Wins
Bazaar: 1 Win
Other: 1 Win
Null Rod: 0 Wins
Dark Ritual: 0 Wins
And a breakdown by percentage looks like this:
Mana Drain: 69.2%
Workshop: 15.4%
Bazaar: 7.7%
Other: 7.7%
Null Rod: 0%
Dark Ritual: 0%
Remarks:
-Improving from the last report Workshop decks managed to win a couple tournaments. I’m a little surprised to see MUD making the top 8 so much with all the artifact hate going around. It’s a good thing though, IMO.
-The real story (surprise, surprise) was Mana Drain. It took over 69% of the wins! I regard 13 tournaments as a relatively small sample, but it’s still enough to get a solid feel for what’s going on out there. One almost has to admire the utter domination of Mana Drain. It’s certainly of historic proportions and something that will be discussed for years and years to come. It’s legendary. It really is. Hasn’t it been since the Keeper or Academy days since we’ve seen something like this?
-The funny thing is, 69.2% is actually a decline from the last report. In March/April, Mana Drain decks won 11 tournaments or 73.3% of all tournaments by my count. Those who fear Gush and/or Flash being unrestricted, please explain to me how they were EVER more broken than this?
Now, I’ve been somewhat negative on Tez and Drain decks in this article. I don’t want anyone who plays those decks to think I’m disparaging them. Nope. I think they made the best decision and deck choice for this metagame. The point is to win. Drain decks, and Tez decks specifically, win. Choosing anything else is rolling the dice. Drain decks were the only really logical choice and have been for 12 consecutive months. I say “Bravo!” to all those who have been playing and winning with Mana Drain. However, it is my personal desire to see the metagame shift to something different and more diverse. It’s happened a little bit already. There’s some nascent Fish builds that are doing well. We’ll see if it continues now that TFK is out of the mix and Enlightened Tutor and Crop Rotation are in.
Thanks for reading. I know there’s not much to respond to in an article like this, but if you have any questions, I‘ll be happy to try to answer them. Steve’s the real expert, so Steve, you’re welcome to chime in with anything. Until next time,
Peace,
-Troy
Sources:
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1050
Philadelphia 09.05.2009, 55 Players, Remora Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1051
Annecy, 351 players, MUD Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1057
Catalan Vintage League 09.05.2009, 70 players, Drain Tendrils Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1061
Blue Bell 23.05.2009, 33 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1063
LVV 5, 36 players, Drain Tendrils Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1064
Lega WL #10, 40 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1065
Zurich, 50 players, Ichorid Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1071
Philadelphia 06.06.2009, 65 players, Stax Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1072
Madrid 31.05.2009, 46 players, Drain Freeze Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1076
Breda, 42 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1079
Madrid 14.06.2009, 38 players, Thoughtcast Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1080
Catalan Vintage League 14.06.2009, 58 players, Tez Won
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1086
Boulder, 40 players, Faeries Won (one deck missing)
No GenCon This Year
Due to a new addition to my family and a very busy schedule at my job, I won't be able to attend GenCon this year. Bummer. It probably would have helped if the Vintage tournament were on Saturday instead of Friday, but oh well. I wish everyone who goes the very best of luck!
Peace,
-Troy
Peace,
-Troy
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
May/June Small-scale Metagame Report
Heya,
This is a new series of articles I’m beginning on this blog. Like most Vintage players out there, I mainly participate in small-scale tournaments. I get to one maybe two larger tournaments (33+ players) a year. Small tournaments are a different animal from large ones. You can often find outmoded archetypes such as Reanimator or Gob-Lines still being played, as well as oddball variants of proven archetypes like Tez featuring 4 Transmute Artifacts.
My goal is to track small-scale tournaments and report on their results. For the purposes of this blog, “small scale” means a minimum of 12 players and a maximum of 32. Stephen Menendian covers tournaments of 33+ players very well in his articles on Star City Games. I’m not going to infringe on his work there. I chose 12 as the minimum to ensure at least a third of the field is eliminated before cutting to the playoffs. Top 8 performance is important to me. Measuring how well a deck does against other well performing decks is key to gauging its power. Any less than 12 players and I feel you don’t even get a minimum feel of a deck’s competitiveness. Fortuitous pairings become too great a factor in which decks make the top 8.
I like small-scale tournaments because you can find some real innovation there. Players are much freer to experiment and try new decks without sacrificing their chance to top 8. Since many of us play in smaller tournaments, I feel this data will be useful. I also plan on examining various statistics and trends in this article series to further shed light on the metagame as a whole.
Before we begin, there are several caveats. First, if you don’t like the name I give a deck or archetype, that’s fine. You can tell me, but unless I made a significant error or there is some other compelling reason, don’t expect me to change or care. We can spend forever debating deck names. I’m not going to waste my time on it. Second, for this first article, I am getting all my info from Morphling.de. Starting with the next bi-monthly report, I’ll try to expand to other sites. This is purely for my own convenience this time around. Third, the number of decks reported might not add up to full top 8’s for the number of tournaments reported. Some tournaments are missing decks or only report the top 4. That’s just the way it is. So if the numbers don’t match, that’s why. Also, this is my first attempt. Mistakes are very possible. If you see one, please, point it out and I will fix it. Finally, the numbers will only be current as of this writing. Tournament reports might come in after I finish writing my report. Not my fault; I’m sorry if your tournament didn’t get included. I will try to wait at least a few weeks after a two-month period has ended before writing.
I’m going to break down the results in several different ways. First is by top 8 finishes according to deck archetype in no particular order:
Tez......................................... 35
Stax......................................... 5
Elves!...................................... 2
Mono-U Control.................... 1
Landstill .................................2
Euro-Control......................... 5
Ichorid.................................. 16
Mono-Red Shop Agro.......... 2
Control Slaver....................... 4
Bazaar Drain.dec.................. 1
Painter................................... 5
WUG Fish.............................. 3
UW Fish................................. 1
MUD...................................... 5
BUG Fish............................... 6
Helm of the Void Combo..... 1
TMWA.................................. 2
UG Fish feat Bazaar............ 2
Mono-U Shop Agro............. 1
La bulle à Bonvil.................. 1
Suicide Black........................ 2
Drain Tendrils..................... 2
Drain Freeze........................ 1
ANT...................................... 1
TPS..................................... 12
Bomberman........................ 3
Goblins................................. 1
Hellkite Oath...................... 3
Zoo....................................... 1
Remora Control................. 3
Counter-Top...................... 1
Grow................................... 4
Long.dec............................. 1
Selkie Strike...................... 1
WUB Fish........................... 3
Pitch Long......................... 1
Progenitus Oath............... 1
Grim Long......................... 1
GW Beatz.......................... 1
UR Fish............................. 2
Stifle-Nought.................... 1
WGB Fish.......................... 2
RBW Fish.......................... 1
BRG Fish........................... 1
Analysis: Tez is by far and away the most likely deck archetype to make the top 8. 35 Tez decks made the playoffs, which is over double the next archetype- Ichorid. Speaking of Ichorid, though, it made a very strong showing as well IMHO. 16 out of 150 reported decks made the top 8. That’s not bad at all.
I believe the reason Tez decks did so well is, obviously, that it is the best deck in Vintage, period. I’ve heard all the arguments about percentage of the field, player preference, player quality, and so on. I wave my hand at them. Tez is best (or at least was until the B/R update). End of discussion. As for Ichorid, I believe its strength in these small-scale tourneys comes partly from poorly prepared sideboards. It’s been my experience that players at smaller tournaments play with more versatile sideboards, and this makes sense. You will face a much broader ranger of threats in small tournaments than you will in larger ones- especially in the top 8. However, considering how easy it is to include cards like Leyline of the Void, Tormod’s Crypt, Relic of Progenitus, and Yxilid Jailer into a sideboard, Ichorid’s strong performance in reaching the top 8 is somewhat likely due to inadequate sideboard construction in the field. Note I said “in the field.” The next set of data is much more telling about how the best decks perform against each other.
It’s one thing to make the top 8, it’s another to win. You can see the brilliant diversity of the small scale meta above, however the tournament winners are less varied. In no particular order, here is who won the May-June small tournaments this year:
Tez................................... 8
Euro-Control.................. 1
Ichorid............................ 1
Control Slaver................ 1
BUG Fish........................ 1
TMWA............................ 1
UR Fish........................... 1
Mono-U Shop Agro....... 1
TPS................................. 1
Bomberman................... 1
GW Beatz....................... 1
RBW Fish....................... 1
MUD............................... 1
Analysis: Only one deck archetype won more than one tournament in this bi-monthly report: Tez. In fact, close to 1 out of every 4 Tez decks that made the top 8 won. (For most of the bi-monthly period it was running at 1 to 4, but some last minute European tournament reports added some fish winners) That’s pretty strong. Out of the 20 tournaments reported as of this writing, Tez won 40% of them. That is an astounding number when you consider the number of diverse threats that deck must face, overcome, and win against to take home the top prize. Ichorid, however, only won 1 tournament. This shows me that in general, players in small-scale tournaments are unprepared for Dredge decks. However, once you get to the top 8, decks are well defended against that strategy. So in short, Tez and Ichorid appear to be your top two choices to make the top 8 of a small-scale tournament, but Tez is (was) your best choice to win.
I’ve debated on whether or not to split Ichorid decks into Mana’d and Manaless. I wouldn’t mind some feedback on that. Is it fair to lump all Dredge decks together while not doing the same for all Fish decks? I don’t know. I’m not sure the two builds are all that dissimilar from each other. However, lumping them together might not give the clearest picture of what’s going on. Some advice on this matter would be most appreciated.
Let’s move on to how each “Pillar” did in this cycle. Several weeks ago Tom LaPille outlined the DCI’s view of Vintage. He stated there are five pillars of the format that they track and try to balance against one another. They are: Force of Will, Mishra’s Workshop, Bazaar of Baghdad, Dark Ritual, and Null Rod. Force of Will decks were later refined to mean mainly FoW decks that feature Mana Drain. So, according to pillar (Drain, Shop, Bazaar, Ritual, Rod), here is how they stacked up:
..................Top 8's.....Wins
Mana Drain....64.............11
Workshop.......14..............2
Bazaar..........19..............1
Null Rod.........25..............5
Dark Ritual....20..............1
Other...........14..............0
Note: The “other” category includes things like Oath decks that didn’t use Mana Drain, various creature decks like Elves and Goblins, and some Grow variants. Some decks utilized more than one pillar in their build, so a total of 6 decks were counted twice.
Analysis: Drain decks made up 41% of the top 8’s and 55% of tournament winners in May and June. That is domination on an unheard of level. Such performance would never be tolerated in any other format by players or the DCI. Coming in second was Null Rod decks at 16% of top 8’s and 25% of tournament winners. This is where the conundrum of Ichorid decks comes in. Above I recommended Ichorid decks based on their performance as a deck archetype. However, as a pillar Rods beat Bazaars both in wins and top 8’s. So which is right? Well, Rod decks are immensely diverse in their builds. In fact, I counted 12 different archetypes that played Null Rod. Conversely, there were only three Bazaar archetypes. Pick your poison, I suppose, their both vastly inferior to Drains. Surprisingly, to me at least, Ritual decks faired very poorly in this bi-monthly report. Only one Ritual deck won a tournament (TPS). I don’t know if it’s a sign that there’s a bias against combo decks in smaller tournaments or if Drain decks are just that dominant. Perhaps my next set of statistics will shed some light on that as more data sets come in.
For years, there have been three main strategies identified in Magic- Combo, Control, and Agro. Examining these strategies can be an important part of understanding the over-all metagame. These categories organize decks in to their major point of emphasis and can give insight into their general game plan. Since they were identified, hybrid categories like Agro-Control and Combo-Control have been identified. For the purposes of this blog entry, I’m going to stick to the original three. I realize that’s not ideal, and I might change that in the future since decks like Grow are extremely hard to categorize as one or the other. But I want to go from micro (deck archetypes) to macro (strategy) in my analysis of the small scale meta, and sticking with the original three helps me best accomplish that goal. In no particular order the three strategies finished like so:
...............Top 8's....Wins
Control........75............11
Combo........22.............2
Agro............53.............7
Analysis: No decks were repeated. Control finished with 50% of the top 8 metagame and 55% of the winners. Agro came in second with 35.3 % of the top 8 and 35% of the winners. Combo entered last at a 14.7% share of the top 8 and a 10 winning percentage. Rounding may account for numerical discrepancies.
What does this tell us? Control decks are dominating and at the same time not knocking each other out of qualifying for the top 8. This is a direct result of Mana Drain’s strength. This data may show that combo decks aren’t favored by small tournament players, but I think it’s too early to jump to that conclusion. Time will tell. Agro decks aren’t too far behind Control; not surprising in a smaller tournament scene. We’ll see if newer printings affect this at all. As far as card choices, this data tells us that things like 9Sphere, Ethersworn Canonist, Pyrostatic Pillar, and Gaddok Teeg are likely at a low ebb in power while cards like Nulll Rod, Gorilla Shaman, Chalice of the Void, and Red Blasts are probably at a peak. This is speaking only in a broad sense. Individual small-scale metas are comprised of the personalities that play in them and will, therefore, be unique. There’s no blanket statement that can apply to all of them.
Overall Analysis:
Drain deck, specifically Tez decks are powerfully dominant in small-scale metagames just as they are in larger tournaments. The metagame is basically broken down into Control Decks vs. Agro Decks with Control holding the upper hand at the moment. Combo decks are scarce right now and not performing well when they do show up. This data should provide us with a baseline to judge the modifications to the B/R List on June 20, 2009. Starting with the next bi-montly report, we’ll know if those changes made a difference or not.
The Top 5’s:
Along with my deck analysis of the metagame, I want to analyze card choices. There are six categories I plan to look at every two months. They are: Top 5 Cards Played, Top 5 Creatures, Top 5 Artifacts, Top 5 Lands, Top 5 Spells, and Top 5 non-P9 Restricted Cards. The numbers I use are accurate as of this writing and come from Morphling.de. These numbers include ALL tournaments- big and small.
Overall Top 5 Cards for May/June 2009:
...............................May June Total
Force of Will...............388....332...720
Polluted Delta.............293....262...555
Underground Sea........226....208...434
Mana Drain...............211....204...415
Flooded Strand...........210...191....401
Top 5 Creatures for May/June 2009:
................................May June Total
Yixlid Jailer.................126....125.....251
Dark Confidant............116.....125....241
Tarmogoyf..................97.......77.....174
Golgari Grave-Troll.......80.......NA.....80
Narcomoeba................79.......NA......79
Top 5 Artifacts for May/June 2009:
...............................May June Total
Pithing Needle............171....121.....292
Chalice of the Void......170....98......268
Tormod's Crypt..........143....116.....259
Black Lotus...............127...106.....233
Mox Sapphire.............112...103.....215
Top 5 Lands for May/June 2009:
..............................May June Total
Polluted Delta............293....262.....555
Underground Sea........226....208....434
Flooded Strand...........210....191.....401
Wasteland.................201....149.....350
Volcanic Island...........84......99.......183
Top 5 Spells for May/June 2009:
...................................May June Total
Force of Will..................388....332....720
Mana Drain....................211.....204...415
Duress..........................224.....175....399
Thirst for Knowledge........178......175....353
Leyline of the Void...........154.....133....287
Top 5 Restricted Cards Outside the P9 for May/June 2009:
................................May June Total
Demonic Tutor.............95.......87......182
Sol Ring......................94.......86......180
Brainstorm..................91.......83.......174
Mana Crypt.................91.......82.......173
Vamp Tutor.................84.......82.......166
I think looking at these lists can give us some insight into building sideboards and including specific hate cards to combat the most prevalent cards played in the meta. I’ll track the changes every two months, and we’ll see how the meta evolves as we go.
Closing:
I hope that this article was enjoyable. If you play in small-scale tournaments, I hope it’s useful. Until next time,
Peace,
-Troy
Sources:
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1048
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1049
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1052
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1056
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1060
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1062
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1066
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1067
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1068
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1069
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1073
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1074
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1075
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1077
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1078
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1081
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1083
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1088
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1089
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1090
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1092
This is a new series of articles I’m beginning on this blog. Like most Vintage players out there, I mainly participate in small-scale tournaments. I get to one maybe two larger tournaments (33+ players) a year. Small tournaments are a different animal from large ones. You can often find outmoded archetypes such as Reanimator or Gob-Lines still being played, as well as oddball variants of proven archetypes like Tez featuring 4 Transmute Artifacts.
My goal is to track small-scale tournaments and report on their results. For the purposes of this blog, “small scale” means a minimum of 12 players and a maximum of 32. Stephen Menendian covers tournaments of 33+ players very well in his articles on Star City Games. I’m not going to infringe on his work there. I chose 12 as the minimum to ensure at least a third of the field is eliminated before cutting to the playoffs. Top 8 performance is important to me. Measuring how well a deck does against other well performing decks is key to gauging its power. Any less than 12 players and I feel you don’t even get a minimum feel of a deck’s competitiveness. Fortuitous pairings become too great a factor in which decks make the top 8.
I like small-scale tournaments because you can find some real innovation there. Players are much freer to experiment and try new decks without sacrificing their chance to top 8. Since many of us play in smaller tournaments, I feel this data will be useful. I also plan on examining various statistics and trends in this article series to further shed light on the metagame as a whole.
Before we begin, there are several caveats. First, if you don’t like the name I give a deck or archetype, that’s fine. You can tell me, but unless I made a significant error or there is some other compelling reason, don’t expect me to change or care. We can spend forever debating deck names. I’m not going to waste my time on it. Second, for this first article, I am getting all my info from Morphling.de. Starting with the next bi-monthly report, I’ll try to expand to other sites. This is purely for my own convenience this time around. Third, the number of decks reported might not add up to full top 8’s for the number of tournaments reported. Some tournaments are missing decks or only report the top 4. That’s just the way it is. So if the numbers don’t match, that’s why. Also, this is my first attempt. Mistakes are very possible. If you see one, please, point it out and I will fix it. Finally, the numbers will only be current as of this writing. Tournament reports might come in after I finish writing my report. Not my fault; I’m sorry if your tournament didn’t get included. I will try to wait at least a few weeks after a two-month period has ended before writing.
I’m going to break down the results in several different ways. First is by top 8 finishes according to deck archetype in no particular order:
Tez......................................... 35
Stax......................................... 5
Elves!...................................... 2
Mono-U Control.................... 1
Landstill .................................2
Euro-Control......................... 5
Ichorid.................................. 16
Mono-Red Shop Agro.......... 2
Control Slaver....................... 4
Bazaar Drain.dec.................. 1
Painter................................... 5
WUG Fish.............................. 3
UW Fish................................. 1
MUD...................................... 5
BUG Fish............................... 6
Helm of the Void Combo..... 1
TMWA.................................. 2
UG Fish feat Bazaar............ 2
Mono-U Shop Agro............. 1
La bulle à Bonvil.................. 1
Suicide Black........................ 2
Drain Tendrils..................... 2
Drain Freeze........................ 1
ANT...................................... 1
TPS..................................... 12
Bomberman........................ 3
Goblins................................. 1
Hellkite Oath...................... 3
Zoo....................................... 1
Remora Control................. 3
Counter-Top...................... 1
Grow................................... 4
Long.dec............................. 1
Selkie Strike...................... 1
WUB Fish........................... 3
Pitch Long......................... 1
Progenitus Oath............... 1
Grim Long......................... 1
GW Beatz.......................... 1
UR Fish............................. 2
Stifle-Nought.................... 1
WGB Fish.......................... 2
RBW Fish.......................... 1
BRG Fish........................... 1
Analysis: Tez is by far and away the most likely deck archetype to make the top 8. 35 Tez decks made the playoffs, which is over double the next archetype- Ichorid. Speaking of Ichorid, though, it made a very strong showing as well IMHO. 16 out of 150 reported decks made the top 8. That’s not bad at all.
I believe the reason Tez decks did so well is, obviously, that it is the best deck in Vintage, period. I’ve heard all the arguments about percentage of the field, player preference, player quality, and so on. I wave my hand at them. Tez is best (or at least was until the B/R update). End of discussion. As for Ichorid, I believe its strength in these small-scale tourneys comes partly from poorly prepared sideboards. It’s been my experience that players at smaller tournaments play with more versatile sideboards, and this makes sense. You will face a much broader ranger of threats in small tournaments than you will in larger ones- especially in the top 8. However, considering how easy it is to include cards like Leyline of the Void, Tormod’s Crypt, Relic of Progenitus, and Yxilid Jailer into a sideboard, Ichorid’s strong performance in reaching the top 8 is somewhat likely due to inadequate sideboard construction in the field. Note I said “in the field.” The next set of data is much more telling about how the best decks perform against each other.
It’s one thing to make the top 8, it’s another to win. You can see the brilliant diversity of the small scale meta above, however the tournament winners are less varied. In no particular order, here is who won the May-June small tournaments this year:
Tez................................... 8
Euro-Control.................. 1
Ichorid............................ 1
Control Slaver................ 1
BUG Fish........................ 1
TMWA............................ 1
UR Fish........................... 1
Mono-U Shop Agro....... 1
TPS................................. 1
Bomberman................... 1
GW Beatz....................... 1
RBW Fish....................... 1
MUD............................... 1
Analysis: Only one deck archetype won more than one tournament in this bi-monthly report: Tez. In fact, close to 1 out of every 4 Tez decks that made the top 8 won. (For most of the bi-monthly period it was running at 1 to 4, but some last minute European tournament reports added some fish winners) That’s pretty strong. Out of the 20 tournaments reported as of this writing, Tez won 40% of them. That is an astounding number when you consider the number of diverse threats that deck must face, overcome, and win against to take home the top prize. Ichorid, however, only won 1 tournament. This shows me that in general, players in small-scale tournaments are unprepared for Dredge decks. However, once you get to the top 8, decks are well defended against that strategy. So in short, Tez and Ichorid appear to be your top two choices to make the top 8 of a small-scale tournament, but Tez is (was) your best choice to win.
I’ve debated on whether or not to split Ichorid decks into Mana’d and Manaless. I wouldn’t mind some feedback on that. Is it fair to lump all Dredge decks together while not doing the same for all Fish decks? I don’t know. I’m not sure the two builds are all that dissimilar from each other. However, lumping them together might not give the clearest picture of what’s going on. Some advice on this matter would be most appreciated.
Let’s move on to how each “Pillar” did in this cycle. Several weeks ago Tom LaPille outlined the DCI’s view of Vintage. He stated there are five pillars of the format that they track and try to balance against one another. They are: Force of Will, Mishra’s Workshop, Bazaar of Baghdad, Dark Ritual, and Null Rod. Force of Will decks were later refined to mean mainly FoW decks that feature Mana Drain. So, according to pillar (Drain, Shop, Bazaar, Ritual, Rod), here is how they stacked up:
..................Top 8's.....Wins
Mana Drain....64.............11
Workshop.......14..............2
Bazaar..........19..............1
Null Rod.........25..............5
Dark Ritual....20..............1
Other...........14..............0
Note: The “other” category includes things like Oath decks that didn’t use Mana Drain, various creature decks like Elves and Goblins, and some Grow variants. Some decks utilized more than one pillar in their build, so a total of 6 decks were counted twice.
Analysis: Drain decks made up 41% of the top 8’s and 55% of tournament winners in May and June. That is domination on an unheard of level. Such performance would never be tolerated in any other format by players or the DCI. Coming in second was Null Rod decks at 16% of top 8’s and 25% of tournament winners. This is where the conundrum of Ichorid decks comes in. Above I recommended Ichorid decks based on their performance as a deck archetype. However, as a pillar Rods beat Bazaars both in wins and top 8’s. So which is right? Well, Rod decks are immensely diverse in their builds. In fact, I counted 12 different archetypes that played Null Rod. Conversely, there were only three Bazaar archetypes. Pick your poison, I suppose, their both vastly inferior to Drains. Surprisingly, to me at least, Ritual decks faired very poorly in this bi-monthly report. Only one Ritual deck won a tournament (TPS). I don’t know if it’s a sign that there’s a bias against combo decks in smaller tournaments or if Drain decks are just that dominant. Perhaps my next set of statistics will shed some light on that as more data sets come in.
For years, there have been three main strategies identified in Magic- Combo, Control, and Agro. Examining these strategies can be an important part of understanding the over-all metagame. These categories organize decks in to their major point of emphasis and can give insight into their general game plan. Since they were identified, hybrid categories like Agro-Control and Combo-Control have been identified. For the purposes of this blog entry, I’m going to stick to the original three. I realize that’s not ideal, and I might change that in the future since decks like Grow are extremely hard to categorize as one or the other. But I want to go from micro (deck archetypes) to macro (strategy) in my analysis of the small scale meta, and sticking with the original three helps me best accomplish that goal. In no particular order the three strategies finished like so:
...............Top 8's....Wins
Control........75............11
Combo........22.............2
Agro............53.............7
Analysis: No decks were repeated. Control finished with 50% of the top 8 metagame and 55% of the winners. Agro came in second with 35.3 % of the top 8 and 35% of the winners. Combo entered last at a 14.7% share of the top 8 and a 10 winning percentage. Rounding may account for numerical discrepancies.
What does this tell us? Control decks are dominating and at the same time not knocking each other out of qualifying for the top 8. This is a direct result of Mana Drain’s strength. This data may show that combo decks aren’t favored by small tournament players, but I think it’s too early to jump to that conclusion. Time will tell. Agro decks aren’t too far behind Control; not surprising in a smaller tournament scene. We’ll see if newer printings affect this at all. As far as card choices, this data tells us that things like 9Sphere, Ethersworn Canonist, Pyrostatic Pillar, and Gaddok Teeg are likely at a low ebb in power while cards like Nulll Rod, Gorilla Shaman, Chalice of the Void, and Red Blasts are probably at a peak. This is speaking only in a broad sense. Individual small-scale metas are comprised of the personalities that play in them and will, therefore, be unique. There’s no blanket statement that can apply to all of them.
Overall Analysis:
Drain deck, specifically Tez decks are powerfully dominant in small-scale metagames just as they are in larger tournaments. The metagame is basically broken down into Control Decks vs. Agro Decks with Control holding the upper hand at the moment. Combo decks are scarce right now and not performing well when they do show up. This data should provide us with a baseline to judge the modifications to the B/R List on June 20, 2009. Starting with the next bi-montly report, we’ll know if those changes made a difference or not.
The Top 5’s:
Along with my deck analysis of the metagame, I want to analyze card choices. There are six categories I plan to look at every two months. They are: Top 5 Cards Played, Top 5 Creatures, Top 5 Artifacts, Top 5 Lands, Top 5 Spells, and Top 5 non-P9 Restricted Cards. The numbers I use are accurate as of this writing and come from Morphling.de. These numbers include ALL tournaments- big and small.
Overall Top 5 Cards for May/June 2009:
...............................May June Total
Force of Will...............388....332...720
Polluted Delta.............293....262...555
Underground Sea........226....208...434
Mana Drain...............211....204...415
Flooded Strand...........210...191....401
Top 5 Creatures for May/June 2009:
................................May June Total
Yixlid Jailer.................126....125.....251
Dark Confidant............116.....125....241
Tarmogoyf..................97.......77.....174
Golgari Grave-Troll.......80.......NA.....80
Narcomoeba................79.......NA......79
Top 5 Artifacts for May/June 2009:
...............................May June Total
Pithing Needle............171....121.....292
Chalice of the Void......170....98......268
Tormod's Crypt..........143....116.....259
Black Lotus...............127...106.....233
Mox Sapphire.............112...103.....215
Top 5 Lands for May/June 2009:
..............................May June Total
Polluted Delta............293....262.....555
Underground Sea........226....208....434
Flooded Strand...........210....191.....401
Wasteland.................201....149.....350
Volcanic Island...........84......99.......183
Top 5 Spells for May/June 2009:
...................................May June Total
Force of Will..................388....332....720
Mana Drain....................211.....204...415
Duress..........................224.....175....399
Thirst for Knowledge........178......175....353
Leyline of the Void...........154.....133....287
Top 5 Restricted Cards Outside the P9 for May/June 2009:
................................May June Total
Demonic Tutor.............95.......87......182
Sol Ring......................94.......86......180
Brainstorm..................91.......83.......174
Mana Crypt.................91.......82.......173
Vamp Tutor.................84.......82.......166
I think looking at these lists can give us some insight into building sideboards and including specific hate cards to combat the most prevalent cards played in the meta. I’ll track the changes every two months, and we’ll see how the meta evolves as we go.
Closing:
I hope that this article was enjoyable. If you play in small-scale tournaments, I hope it’s useful. Until next time,
Peace,
-Troy
Sources:
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1048
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1049
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1052
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1056
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1060
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1062
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1066
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1067
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1068
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1069
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1073
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1074
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1075
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1077
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1078
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1081
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1083
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1088
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1089
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1090
http://morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1092
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Semi-baseless Prediction #3
Heya,
Just judging by my own experience, until the new Tez build gets sorted out (which should happen by the next month) there is going to be a big spike in agro decks. Look for MUD to return from oblivion and new Fish builds to pop up everywhere. Surprisingly, I expect Ichorid decks to stay about at the same level. Don't expect anything new, though. I doubt we'll see Dragon Combo show up in any numbers and even Shop Rotation decks will be slim in their appearances in the top 8. For the next few weeks, expect agro to be everywhere.
Peace,
-Troy
Just judging by my own experience, until the new Tez build gets sorted out (which should happen by the next month) there is going to be a big spike in agro decks. Look for MUD to return from oblivion and new Fish builds to pop up everywhere. Surprisingly, I expect Ichorid decks to stay about at the same level. Don't expect anything new, though. I doubt we'll see Dragon Combo show up in any numbers and even Shop Rotation decks will be slim in their appearances in the top 8. For the next few weeks, expect agro to be everywhere.
Peace,
-Troy
Friday, July 17, 2009
An Update on Christmas Beatings
Heya,
I had a chance to play in a small Vintage tournament last weekend. I brought out my old Christmas Beatings deck and was really looking forward to mixing it up against some Tez and Slaver decks that usually dominate my meta. Here’s the list I played:
4 Null Rod
4 Gorilla Shaman
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Thornweald Archer
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Seal of Primoridum
4 Pyroblast
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Black Lotus (budget players sub in Petal)
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Tiaga
3 Snow-covered Forest
3 Snow-covered Mountain
4 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
I was all set to compete against some top level deck designs….and all I did was play against agro all day. No Tez, no Stax, no Slaver, just a bunch of Fishy decks. It was disappointing, but Vintage has fallen on hard times in my area. While in 2006-2008 we’d have 20+ people come every week, now we’re lucky to get to 12. The June 2008 hit my area very hard and the dominance of Tez lists hasn’t helped.
So how did my deck do? Not bad. I made the top 4 and lost to UB Fish in 3 games. I’m not going to bother with a detailed game report this time. There’s not much to glean from the competition other than Thornweald Archer is a great addition to the main deck specifically because it is so good against agro. But I just don’t feel there’s much benefit in talking about how my deck did against Type2 decks with a mox and lotus thrown in just before the tournament starts.
Anyway, I’ll keep updating this space with my performance with this deck and other budget builds. Hopefully my findings will be a little more interesting the next time.
Peace,
-Troy
I had a chance to play in a small Vintage tournament last weekend. I brought out my old Christmas Beatings deck and was really looking forward to mixing it up against some Tez and Slaver decks that usually dominate my meta. Here’s the list I played:
4 Null Rod
4 Gorilla Shaman
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Thornweald Archer
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Seal of Primoridum
4 Pyroblast
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Black Lotus (budget players sub in Petal)
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Tiaga
3 Snow-covered Forest
3 Snow-covered Mountain
4 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
I was all set to compete against some top level deck designs….and all I did was play against agro all day. No Tez, no Stax, no Slaver, just a bunch of Fishy decks. It was disappointing, but Vintage has fallen on hard times in my area. While in 2006-2008 we’d have 20+ people come every week, now we’re lucky to get to 12. The June 2008 hit my area very hard and the dominance of Tez lists hasn’t helped.
So how did my deck do? Not bad. I made the top 4 and lost to UB Fish in 3 games. I’m not going to bother with a detailed game report this time. There’s not much to glean from the competition other than Thornweald Archer is a great addition to the main deck specifically because it is so good against agro. But I just don’t feel there’s much benefit in talking about how my deck did against Type2 decks with a mox and lotus thrown in just before the tournament starts.
Anyway, I’ll keep updating this space with my performance with this deck and other budget builds. Hopefully my findings will be a little more interesting the next time.
Peace,
-Troy
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
M10 Set Review
Heya,
After actually getting to play with the cards from M10, I feel I can now do a set review. I participated at the pre-release at my FLGS and had a blast. As far as core sets go, I believe this is the best one since Revised- and that’s saying a lot because 10th edition was pretty good in its own right. Anyway, here are my thoughts on M10 pertaining to Vintage:
White-
Elite Vanguard: There may be a soldier deck lurking somewhere in Vintage. Cards like Aether Vial, Lotus Petal, and Mox Diamond can help power out weenies in a hurry. Elite Vanguard is an upgrade IMO to the venerable Savannah Lions of Alpha. However, like all non-disruptive creatures, it has little shot to be used in a serious Vintage deck.
Mesa Enchantress: If Parfait ever catches on, and I think it would take the unrestricting of Balance to accomplish that, this card may have a spot. The only problem IMO is the double WW in its casting cost. Even in a mono-colored deck, that’s hard to achieve fast enough to make a difference in the game. Maybe someday they’ll print a cheaper variant.
Safe Passage: Over costed. At W it would be worth a look. At 2W, it’s just too much.
Silence: This may be the best card for Vintage out of the set. A UW “Time Walk” deck featuring these, Abeyance, Orim’s Chant, and the original of course, could find a way into the meta with some solid support from cards like Ethersworn Canonist and Aven Mindcensor. Silence can’t be Misdirected, so that’s a major plus in my book. White is at its lowest ebb ever in Magic right now, so it may be a few years before this card has a chance to shine.
Tempest of Light: An instant version of Tranquility! I only mention it because it is a massive upgrade to that card.
Blue-
Cancel: This card is an insult.
Djinn of Wishes: Well, Vintage is the place to abuse its ability. There are plenty of topdeck tutors that combo well with it. The problem is getting it in play fast enough to matter. This card is probably better in theory than it ever will be in practice.
Fabricate: I maintain that this card is a lot more castable than Vintage players give it credit. I’m not saying it’s good, just saying it’s better than the “crap uncommon” label it has gotten.
Negate: One of the better 1U counterspells.
Polymorph: It’s a Tinker for Standard! Now that DSC is back, we’ll see it that little combo sees play in Type 2.
Ponder: Wow, this card is so busted, it deserves a spot on the restricted list! Aaaaaanyway, I do recommend picking up a copy from the M10 set. The artwork is miles better than the one from Lorwyn.
Sleep: In Limited, this thing is a Time Walk. You basically get two unmolested attack phases. That’s about as much of a win now card as you can get in modern Magic. This card might even see some play in Standard now that Wrath of God is out of print. Very nice design IMO and powerful at the uncommon slot.
Snapping Drake: I guess Phantom Monster is just too broken to reprint anymore.
Telepathy: I’ve often wondered if this card were widely played in Vintage if it would be any good. Knowing what your opponent has in his hand is powerful. One blue isn’t a high casting cost IMO, and enchantment kill is rarely ever played. I guess deck space is too much at a premium for something like this. It’s a shame. I think it’s a decent effect.
Black-
Duress: This is one of the top spells played in Vintage month to month. We now have three different artworks to choose from. Honestly, though, I don’t care much for any of them.
Sign in Blood: The artwork harkens back to cards like Contract From Below. However, it’s a bad Night’s Whisper. Nothing to see here.
Red-
Burning Inquiry: Wow, there’s a lot going on with this card. Drawing 3 cards for one mana is always worth a look in Vintage. However, the drawbacks are STEEP. First, it’s card disadvantage since you discard the same number you draw. Second, it symmetrically affects your opponent. That’s just too much even for a draw three. I don’t think even a Belcher deck would play this.
Goblin Chieftain: This is a nice upgrade to Goblin King. I don’t know if it will get played in Vintage Goblin lists, but I’m sure there’s other Goblin decks out there salivating for when this card becomes legal.
Lightning Bolt: Count me in the crowd that thought this card would never be reprinted. For all those who longed for this thing in the new card frame, here’s your chance!
Pyroclasm: This has always been a decent board sweeper in Vintage. Firespout doesn’t give you much more utility in this format as it does in others, Pyroclasm is still the best cheap sweeper in Vintage IMO (unless you count Balance of course). Solid card if you are in a heavy Fish meta.
Shatter: Shouldn’t this thing cost only one mana by now?
Green-
Elvish Archdruid: It’s an expensive Priest of Titania. I don’t see Elf decks messing around with this all that much in Vintage.
Great Stable Stag: If 9 Land Stompy were still around, this would be a key card for it IMO. We’ve come a little ways since the days of Scragnoth. Maybe someday they’ll print something similar just 1 mana less. That card might have a chance at seeing play in Vintage.
Mold Adder: Not bad in a Zoo deck, but it has to compete with Skyshroud Elite and Wild Nacatl at the same casting cost. I find it unlikely to see play.
Nature’s Spiral: The three best cards that can be recovered by Regrowth are Time Walk, Ancestral Recall, and Black Lotus. This one gets Lotus at least! However, it’s probably worse than Reconstruct or Agrivian Find in that department.
Artifact-
Darksteel Colossus: For many years, the best artifact creature in Vintage. Now, a forgotten memory.
Mirror of Fate: It’s a nice try to use the new Exile zone, but it provides nothing Doomsday doesn’t.
Pithing Needle: Getting more of these in print is nice. I just wish it had new art. Every Vintage player should have a couple in their collection.
Land-
Gargoyle Castle: I think Landstill has all the manlands it needs. Casual players will love this, though. Too bad Crucible of Worlds wasn’t reprinted.
New Duals: When evaluating mana sources in Vintage, one always has to consider the mulligan. These lands are terrible in a mulligan hand and therefore are probably ranked behind the shocklands and painlands as alternatives to the original duals.
Grades-
Limited: A+
Standard A-
Vintage: D-
What did you expect? Outside of Silence and Pithing Needle, there’s not much for Vintage. The prerelease was a blast, and I’ll be at my local launch party. And I know Standard will be greatly impacted by this set. But I think we’ll have to wait until Zendikar for anything worthwhile to come to Vintage. Here’s to another three months of waiting.
Peace,
-Troy
After actually getting to play with the cards from M10, I feel I can now do a set review. I participated at the pre-release at my FLGS and had a blast. As far as core sets go, I believe this is the best one since Revised- and that’s saying a lot because 10th edition was pretty good in its own right. Anyway, here are my thoughts on M10 pertaining to Vintage:
White-
Elite Vanguard: There may be a soldier deck lurking somewhere in Vintage. Cards like Aether Vial, Lotus Petal, and Mox Diamond can help power out weenies in a hurry. Elite Vanguard is an upgrade IMO to the venerable Savannah Lions of Alpha. However, like all non-disruptive creatures, it has little shot to be used in a serious Vintage deck.
Mesa Enchantress: If Parfait ever catches on, and I think it would take the unrestricting of Balance to accomplish that, this card may have a spot. The only problem IMO is the double WW in its casting cost. Even in a mono-colored deck, that’s hard to achieve fast enough to make a difference in the game. Maybe someday they’ll print a cheaper variant.
Safe Passage: Over costed. At W it would be worth a look. At 2W, it’s just too much.
Silence: This may be the best card for Vintage out of the set. A UW “Time Walk” deck featuring these, Abeyance, Orim’s Chant, and the original of course, could find a way into the meta with some solid support from cards like Ethersworn Canonist and Aven Mindcensor. Silence can’t be Misdirected, so that’s a major plus in my book. White is at its lowest ebb ever in Magic right now, so it may be a few years before this card has a chance to shine.
Tempest of Light: An instant version of Tranquility! I only mention it because it is a massive upgrade to that card.
Blue-
Cancel: This card is an insult.
Djinn of Wishes: Well, Vintage is the place to abuse its ability. There are plenty of topdeck tutors that combo well with it. The problem is getting it in play fast enough to matter. This card is probably better in theory than it ever will be in practice.
Fabricate: I maintain that this card is a lot more castable than Vintage players give it credit. I’m not saying it’s good, just saying it’s better than the “crap uncommon” label it has gotten.
Negate: One of the better 1U counterspells.
Polymorph: It’s a Tinker for Standard! Now that DSC is back, we’ll see it that little combo sees play in Type 2.
Ponder: Wow, this card is so busted, it deserves a spot on the restricted list! Aaaaaanyway, I do recommend picking up a copy from the M10 set. The artwork is miles better than the one from Lorwyn.
Sleep: In Limited, this thing is a Time Walk. You basically get two unmolested attack phases. That’s about as much of a win now card as you can get in modern Magic. This card might even see some play in Standard now that Wrath of God is out of print. Very nice design IMO and powerful at the uncommon slot.
Snapping Drake: I guess Phantom Monster is just too broken to reprint anymore.
Telepathy: I’ve often wondered if this card were widely played in Vintage if it would be any good. Knowing what your opponent has in his hand is powerful. One blue isn’t a high casting cost IMO, and enchantment kill is rarely ever played. I guess deck space is too much at a premium for something like this. It’s a shame. I think it’s a decent effect.
Black-
Duress: This is one of the top spells played in Vintage month to month. We now have three different artworks to choose from. Honestly, though, I don’t care much for any of them.
Sign in Blood: The artwork harkens back to cards like Contract From Below. However, it’s a bad Night’s Whisper. Nothing to see here.
Red-
Burning Inquiry: Wow, there’s a lot going on with this card. Drawing 3 cards for one mana is always worth a look in Vintage. However, the drawbacks are STEEP. First, it’s card disadvantage since you discard the same number you draw. Second, it symmetrically affects your opponent. That’s just too much even for a draw three. I don’t think even a Belcher deck would play this.
Goblin Chieftain: This is a nice upgrade to Goblin King. I don’t know if it will get played in Vintage Goblin lists, but I’m sure there’s other Goblin decks out there salivating for when this card becomes legal.
Lightning Bolt: Count me in the crowd that thought this card would never be reprinted. For all those who longed for this thing in the new card frame, here’s your chance!
Pyroclasm: This has always been a decent board sweeper in Vintage. Firespout doesn’t give you much more utility in this format as it does in others, Pyroclasm is still the best cheap sweeper in Vintage IMO (unless you count Balance of course). Solid card if you are in a heavy Fish meta.
Shatter: Shouldn’t this thing cost only one mana by now?
Green-
Elvish Archdruid: It’s an expensive Priest of Titania. I don’t see Elf decks messing around with this all that much in Vintage.
Great Stable Stag: If 9 Land Stompy were still around, this would be a key card for it IMO. We’ve come a little ways since the days of Scragnoth. Maybe someday they’ll print something similar just 1 mana less. That card might have a chance at seeing play in Vintage.
Mold Adder: Not bad in a Zoo deck, but it has to compete with Skyshroud Elite and Wild Nacatl at the same casting cost. I find it unlikely to see play.
Nature’s Spiral: The three best cards that can be recovered by Regrowth are Time Walk, Ancestral Recall, and Black Lotus. This one gets Lotus at least! However, it’s probably worse than Reconstruct or Agrivian Find in that department.
Artifact-
Darksteel Colossus: For many years, the best artifact creature in Vintage. Now, a forgotten memory.
Mirror of Fate: It’s a nice try to use the new Exile zone, but it provides nothing Doomsday doesn’t.
Pithing Needle: Getting more of these in print is nice. I just wish it had new art. Every Vintage player should have a couple in their collection.
Land-
Gargoyle Castle: I think Landstill has all the manlands it needs. Casual players will love this, though. Too bad Crucible of Worlds wasn’t reprinted.
New Duals: When evaluating mana sources in Vintage, one always has to consider the mulligan. These lands are terrible in a mulligan hand and therefore are probably ranked behind the shocklands and painlands as alternatives to the original duals.
Grades-
Limited: A+
Standard A-
Vintage: D-
What did you expect? Outside of Silence and Pithing Needle, there’s not much for Vintage. The prerelease was a blast, and I’ll be at my local launch party. And I know Standard will be greatly impacted by this set. But I think we’ll have to wait until Zendikar for anything worthwhile to come to Vintage. Here’s to another three months of waiting.
Peace,
-Troy
Saturday, July 4, 2009
The Loss of TFK
Heya,
Starting this month, Thirst for Knowledge is restricted in Vintage. Throw it on the pile of "see three cards" that have been restricted like Ancestral Recall, Brainstorm, and Ponder. It makes me wonder if Impulse, Intuition, and Strategic Planning are next. In fact, I think there is a little bit of hypocracy here. Is Ponder that much better than Impulse? Is Gifts Ungiven that much better than Intuition? Is TFK that much better than Strategic Planning? In certain ways, yeah, they are. But in a lot of ways, these three cards match fairly closely to cards already resticted. I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the chopping block next. But that's a worry for another time.
The best replacesments for TFK, IMHO, are:
Mystic Remora + Meditate
Mystic Remora + Dark Confidant
Intuition + Accumulated Knowledge
Intuition + Deep Analysis
Strategic Planning
Impulse
Standstill
Night's Whisper
Telling Time
Careful Consideration
Thoughtcast
I don't know how many of these will really pan out. Honestly, it's probably just better to run the entire blue restricted list of draw cards. But here's an assortment of cards to test. We'll see which cream rises to the top.
I'm not sure restricting TFK will give the DCI what it wants: a more balanced Drain deck. There are so many useful options to replace it. Honestly, even off the wall cards like Standstill would be just fine when you think about it. So in the end, they will just keep chasing the next most effecient blue draw spell. Until they suck it up and unrestrict a Drain hunter card like Gush or Flash, then we're likely going to be stuck in this same metagame for a while.
Peace,
-Troy
Starting this month, Thirst for Knowledge is restricted in Vintage. Throw it on the pile of "see three cards" that have been restricted like Ancestral Recall, Brainstorm, and Ponder. It makes me wonder if Impulse, Intuition, and Strategic Planning are next. In fact, I think there is a little bit of hypocracy here. Is Ponder that much better than Impulse? Is Gifts Ungiven that much better than Intuition? Is TFK that much better than Strategic Planning? In certain ways, yeah, they are. But in a lot of ways, these three cards match fairly closely to cards already resticted. I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the chopping block next. But that's a worry for another time.
The best replacesments for TFK, IMHO, are:
Mystic Remora + Meditate
Mystic Remora + Dark Confidant
Intuition + Accumulated Knowledge
Intuition + Deep Analysis
Strategic Planning
Impulse
Standstill
Night's Whisper
Telling Time
Careful Consideration
Thoughtcast
I don't know how many of these will really pan out. Honestly, it's probably just better to run the entire blue restricted list of draw cards. But here's an assortment of cards to test. We'll see which cream rises to the top.
I'm not sure restricting TFK will give the DCI what it wants: a more balanced Drain deck. There are so many useful options to replace it. Honestly, even off the wall cards like Standstill would be just fine when you think about it. So in the end, they will just keep chasing the next most effecient blue draw spell. Until they suck it up and unrestrict a Drain hunter card like Gush or Flash, then we're likely going to be stuck in this same metagame for a while.
Peace,
-Troy
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Semi-baseless Prediction #2
Heya,
While this one is somewhat at odds with my previous prediction, I still believe it has a reasonable chance of coming true. I predict that the June 2009 moves on the B/R List will have little to no effect on the overall metagame. The only new archetype supported by those moves would be based off of Worldgorger Dragon, and I highly doubt it will be more competitive than 5% of the overall meta. As a result several things will happen:
1) Obviously, the metagame will continue to stagnate- passing 12 months in basically the same shape.
2) More people will give up on the format as their prefered archetype has no shot at winning.
3) Ichorid decks will gain a few points of the meta share, maybe up to 12.5%.
4) We will be right back to clamouring for unrestrictions in 3-6 months.
That last point I'll touch on a little bit more. I believe there at least 7 more cards that can come off the B/R list, maybe more. I'll be outlining them in a series on this blog over the course of the next few weeks or months. After the DCI's September decision, I'll doubt we'll see much movement until June 2010. So between now and then, I will be honing my arguments and discovering new uses for the cards that are wrongfully restricted in our format.
Peace,
-Troy
While this one is somewhat at odds with my previous prediction, I still believe it has a reasonable chance of coming true. I predict that the June 2009 moves on the B/R List will have little to no effect on the overall metagame. The only new archetype supported by those moves would be based off of Worldgorger Dragon, and I highly doubt it will be more competitive than 5% of the overall meta. As a result several things will happen:
1) Obviously, the metagame will continue to stagnate- passing 12 months in basically the same shape.
2) More people will give up on the format as their prefered archetype has no shot at winning.
3) Ichorid decks will gain a few points of the meta share, maybe up to 12.5%.
4) We will be right back to clamouring for unrestrictions in 3-6 months.
That last point I'll touch on a little bit more. I believe there at least 7 more cards that can come off the B/R list, maybe more. I'll be outlining them in a series on this blog over the course of the next few weeks or months. After the DCI's September decision, I'll doubt we'll see much movement until June 2010. So between now and then, I will be honing my arguments and discovering new uses for the cards that are wrongfully restricted in our format.
Peace,
-Troy
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
A New Outlook on the B/R List
Heya,
Over the last few weeks Tom LaPille wrote two articles explaining how the DCI looks at Vintage. They categorise it into five "pillars": Force of Will/Mana Drain, Mishra's Workshop, Bazaar of Baghdad, Dark Ritual, and Null Rod. Future B/R modifications will be based on this outlook and attempt to balance each pillar against the others. Therefore I thought it might be useful to attempt to organize the B/R list according to Pillar rather than function or color. Here's my first try:
Force-Drain
* Ancestral Recall
* Time Walk
* Timetwister
* Tinker
* Gifts Ungiven
* Fact Or Fiction
* Brainstorm
* Gush
* Ponder
* Mystical Tutor
* Merchant Scroll
* Frantic Search
* Thirst For Knowledge
* Flash* Yawgmoth’s Will
* Demonic Tutor
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal* Fastbond
* Channel
* Regrowth
* Time Vault
* Tolarian Academy
* Library Of Alexandria
Ritual
* Ancestral Recall
* Mind’s Desire* Windfall
* Brainstorm
* Ponder
* Mystical Tutor
* Time Twister
* Ancestral Recall
* Yawgmoth’s Will
* Yawgmoth’s Bargain
* Necropotence
* Demonic Tutor
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal
* Demonic Consultation
* Burning Wish
* Wheel Of Fortune
* Lion’s Eye Diamond
* Memory Ja
* Tolarian Academy
Workshop
* Ancestral Recall
* Time Walk
* Tinker
* Thirst For Knowledge
* Demonic Tutor
* Balance
* Trinisphere
* Tolarian Academy
* Strip Mine
Bazaar
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal
Null Rod
* Ancestral Recall
* Tinker
* Ponder
* Mystical Tutor
* Brainstorm
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal
* Strip Mine
* Library Of Alexandria
All
* Demonic Tutor
* Black Lotus
* Mox Emerald
* Mox Jet
* Mox Pearl
* Mox Ruby
* Mox Sapphire
* Sol Ring
* Mana Crypt
* Lotus Petal
Any feedback?
Peace,
-Troy
Over the last few weeks Tom LaPille wrote two articles explaining how the DCI looks at Vintage. They categorise it into five "pillars": Force of Will/Mana Drain, Mishra's Workshop, Bazaar of Baghdad, Dark Ritual, and Null Rod. Future B/R modifications will be based on this outlook and attempt to balance each pillar against the others. Therefore I thought it might be useful to attempt to organize the B/R list according to Pillar rather than function or color. Here's my first try:
Force-Drain
* Ancestral Recall
* Time Walk
* Timetwister
* Tinker
* Gifts Ungiven
* Fact Or Fiction
* Brainstorm
* Gush
* Ponder
* Mystical Tutor
* Merchant Scroll
* Frantic Search
* Thirst For Knowledge
* Flash* Yawgmoth’s Will
* Demonic Tutor
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal* Fastbond
* Channel
* Regrowth
* Time Vault
* Tolarian Academy
* Library Of Alexandria
Ritual
* Ancestral Recall
* Mind’s Desire* Windfall
* Brainstorm
* Ponder
* Mystical Tutor
* Time Twister
* Ancestral Recall
* Yawgmoth’s Will
* Yawgmoth’s Bargain
* Necropotence
* Demonic Tutor
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal
* Demonic Consultation
* Burning Wish
* Wheel Of Fortune
* Lion’s Eye Diamond
* Memory Ja
* Tolarian Academy
Workshop
* Ancestral Recall
* Time Walk
* Tinker
* Thirst For Knowledge
* Demonic Tutor
* Balance
* Trinisphere
* Tolarian Academy
* Strip Mine
Bazaar
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal
Null Rod
* Ancestral Recall
* Tinker
* Ponder
* Mystical Tutor
* Brainstorm
* Vampiric Tutor
* Imperial Seal
* Strip Mine
* Library Of Alexandria
All
* Demonic Tutor
* Black Lotus
* Mox Emerald
* Mox Jet
* Mox Pearl
* Mox Ruby
* Mox Sapphire
* Sol Ring
* Mana Crypt
* Lotus Petal
Any feedback?
Peace,
-Troy
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Semi-Baseless Prediction #1
Heya,
I'm going to make a prediction about the future metagame:
If Crop Rotation sees an extraordinary amount of play (i.e. decks using it comprise 15% or more of the top 8's) then players will choose to wave good-bye to basic lands. Crop-Strip dis-incentivises using basic lands unlike the current 4 Wasteland/1 Strip Mine package played now. If players choose to drop basics, look for the following cards to begin showing up more and more in decks:
Flooded Strand (as 4 of instead of 1 or 2 like now)
Bloodstained Mire (next most likely choice to fetch black producing lands)
Minamo, School at Water's Edge (nice synergy with Tolarian Academy)
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds (protects itself from Strip Mine)
Seat of the Synod (nice synergy with Tinker, Tezzeret, and Trinket Mage)
Vault of Whispers (see above)
It will be very interesting to see if people move away from using basics. It would strengthen Wasteland and Blood Moon effects, but would also free decks from the design constraint of using them. This is all very hypothetical. I'm not sure Crop Rotation will make much of a difference at all. We'll have to see.
Peace,
-Troy
I'm going to make a prediction about the future metagame:
If Crop Rotation sees an extraordinary amount of play (i.e. decks using it comprise 15% or more of the top 8's) then players will choose to wave good-bye to basic lands. Crop-Strip dis-incentivises using basic lands unlike the current 4 Wasteland/1 Strip Mine package played now. If players choose to drop basics, look for the following cards to begin showing up more and more in decks:
Flooded Strand (as 4 of instead of 1 or 2 like now)
Bloodstained Mire (next most likely choice to fetch black producing lands)
Minamo, School at Water's Edge (nice synergy with Tolarian Academy)
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds (protects itself from Strip Mine)
Seat of the Synod (nice synergy with Tinker, Tezzeret, and Trinket Mage)
Vault of Whispers (see above)
It will be very interesting to see if people move away from using basics. It would strengthen Wasteland and Blood Moon effects, but would also free decks from the design constraint of using them. This is all very hypothetical. I'm not sure Crop Rotation will make much of a difference at all. We'll have to see.
Peace,
-Troy
Monday, June 29, 2009
So what am I doing here?
Thanks to some changes in my life, I was able to return to Vintage magic after a few years away. Now, after being heavily involved in it for some time once again, I've regained my passion for the format. Thanks to some terrific printings, adjustments to the B/R List, and a change at the DCI, I believe Vintage is the most fun format for Magic: The Gathering. I'll be using this space to express my views on the format and to accomplish several important tasks:
1) Examine small scale tournament data
2) Lobby the DCI to remove various cards from the B/R List
3) Lobby the rules committee to change the errata on various cards
4) Comment on new sets as they are released
5) Develop budget decks for the Vintage format
I'm looking forward to working on this project. I hope it proves valuable in some way to the Vintage community.
Peace,
-Troy
1) Examine small scale tournament data
2) Lobby the DCI to remove various cards from the B/R List
3) Lobby the rules committee to change the errata on various cards
4) Comment on new sets as they are released
5) Develop budget decks for the Vintage format
I'm looking forward to working on this project. I hope it proves valuable in some way to the Vintage community.
Peace,
-Troy
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