GenCon Predictions

Heya,

While everyone else is concentrating on the Legacy GP in Columbus, I’m going to make my predictions for the Vintage Champs at GenCon (which, if you haven’t noticed, is next week already!). For the first time since 2006, we’re going into GenCon pretty much knowing what the format is all about. It’s the first time in four years where the DCI didn’t monkey around with the format in June. So, our options are pretty clear:

Tezzeret Control
Drain Tendrils
TPS
MUD
Noble Fish
Dredge
Elephant Oath

Tez was last year’s winner. I don’t know when the last time a deck repeated at Vintage World’s. It’s been a while, and I think that trend will continue. Tez is being out maneuvered by several decks. I just don’t see it winning. Final Prediction: 1 or 2 in the Top 8.

Storm decks are making something of a comeback. I still believe that they are not positioned well in the format right now. I attribute a lot of their success to the rise of Elephant Oath. Neither Drain Tendrils nor TPS has the starch to win it this year. Final Prediction: 1 in the Top 8.

MUD is all the rage right now. Meandeck MUD is seeing play in a lot of tournaments all over the world and doing very well. This deck is easy to play, especially compared to Tez, Drain Tendrils, and TPS; therefore, opportunities for mistakes are minimized. In Vintage World’s, that’s important. MUD is well positioned to beat the Storm decks that show up and obviously has a good matchup vs. Tez. With Duplicants in the SB, it can combat Oath well enough. I think Dredge and a properly tuned Noble Fish can give MUD some headaches. I imagine most MUD lists will have 7+ anti-Ichorid cards in its SB. IMHO, this is the deck to beat. Final Prediction: 3 in Top 8, 2 in Top 4.

Noble Fish has performed well all year, but it’s on the decline at exactly the wrong time. If GenCon had been this spring, I think Noble Fish (or one of its variants) would be the deck to beat. Expect a TON of Fish decks at GenCon. Null Rods, Chalices, Wastelands, Goyfs, and Hierarchs are cheap by Vintage standards. However, I think that Dredge decks Oath decks (especially ones with Show and Tell) will stamp out most of them. Final Prediction: 1 in Top 8 (maybe)

Just as Fish is declining, Dredge is peaking out at just the right time. Terrific new cards like Sun Titan and Leyline of Sanctity are being incorporated into a very resistant, very powerful Ichorid deck. Dredge undulates between 5 to 15% of the metagame in a fairly regular, rhythmic patter. People put tons of Dredge hate in their sideboards, Dredge goes down, they forget about Dredge, Dredge comes back. It’s a pattern than has persisted since Future Sight. However, this year has shown us something different. Dredge hasn’t lost its potency. It’s held its spot in the meta despite new hate cards like Ravenous Trap and Bojuka Bog. I believe that Dredge decks that pack a mix of Unmask, Darkblast, Chalice of the Void, Leyline of Sanctity, Petrified Field, and Sun Titan will do very well this year in World’s. All that being said, almost half of every sideboard will be devoted to beating this deck. The threats are many. I don’t think this is the year of Dredge, but I do think this will be Dredge’s best year ever. Final Prediction: 1 or 2 in Top 8, 1 in Top 4.

Elephant Oath is hard for me to gauge right now. Is it on the decline? Is it just in hibernation? Are the good players who played this deck migrating to MUD? I don’t know. I do know that Dredge decks are well positioned to take out Oath this year. MUD seems to have a favorable matchup. Tez decks dropped their Confidants, so that matchup is a little harder for Oath. Oath and Noble Fish have been locking horns all year. So what to say? Oath could do really well, or it could get blown out completely. Final Prediction: 1 in Top 8, 1 in Top 4.

So I’ve got 10 decks making the top 8. That’s probably a pretty good prediction. I feel pretty confident about my MUD, MUD, Oath, Dredge final 4. From there, it will just depend on who gets matched up with what.

There’s also a chance for a rogue deck to make it in. If I were going to take a rogue deck to GenCon what would it be? Suicide Black. It’s the last thing anyone is prepared for, so I think it would have a chance of at least having a winning record. Here’s what I would build:

Main Deck:

1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus
1 Lotus Petal
4 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine
6 Swamp
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Dark Ritual
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Tendrils of Agony
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Null Rod
4 Phylactery Lich
4 Dark Confidant
4 Phyrexian Negator
2 Gatekeeper of Malakir
2 Tombstalker
2 Duress
4 Thoughtseize
1 Necropotence

Sideboard:

2 Ravenous Trap
2 Yxilid Jailer
4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Cruel Edict
2 Massacre
3 Ensnaring Bridge

Take into account I haven’t had much time to playtest that list, but I believe that no one would see it coming and it could sneak up on decks very easily. It’s Suicide Black, so there is some risk in every game, but that’s part of the excitement too. I tried working in Sadistic Sacrament and the ole’ Dark Depths/Vampite Hexmage. I didn’t like what they did to the deck, so this is what I’m most happy with.

Anyway, here’s to another year of Vintage at GenCon. Good luck to all participants!

Peace,

-Troy