Heya,
Welcome back to 2007! (sorta) There’s no Flash and Time Vault is playable. But still, we’re at least back to where we should have been after the 2008 B/R decision. Two years to wait for a correction isn’t bad in my opinion. So let’s examine the initial ramifications of the B/R announcement that unrestricted Gush and Frantic Search.
First, the Potential Big Winners:
-Grow Decks: Obviously…. The thing is, though, I’m not sure they’re the best place for Gush now. A light mana base is very vulnerable to Spheres and I’m not sure it stacks up well against Trygon Jace. Regardless, Grow is a more viable strategy than it was a month ago.
-Shop Decks: There is nothing Shop players love more than decks that want to play a lot of spells. 13 Sphere effects + Tangle Wire means they are well prepared for any Gush archetypes that show up- with the possible exception of one.
-Tyrant Oath: At least initially, I think this will be the Gush deck to rise to the top. It’s easy to build in that you don’t have to change the current shell a great deal to take advantage of Gush. It can get around Spheres easily enough and can bounce a board vs. Fish. Its strength vs. Trygon Jace and Dredge will be tested, but clever pilots will find success at least in the early months of this new meta.
-Rogue Decks: The 2007-2008 metagame was a rogue decker’s paradise. R/G Beatz, Gob-Lines, WGDx, Bomberman, Elves! and several others all were viable thanks to the blanket of protection Gush and MUD gave them. Look for rogue strategies to flourish and then fall in a never ending cycle of innovation over the next six months.
-Slaver Decks: Anymore, this may count as a rogue deck. But with Frantic Search now legal as a 4-of, it could replace TFK in that build. And there’s a new spiffy version of the namesake for this deck in Scars of Mirrodin to boot!
-Gaddock Teeg: Our favorite hobbit suddenly looks crazy strong in this new meta. It all depends on whether or not Gush decks really find an archetype that can survive in the Vault vs. Rod vs. Shop meta we now have. If Gush only makes up 10% or less of the field, he’ll be a sideboard card- much like he is now. If Gush rises above that, look for Fish pilots to dust off their foil playsets.
-Qasaili Pridemage: Already a great card, he gets better now that decks will play more enchantments.
-Ethersworn Canonist: Hatebears everywhere love this decision. It comes down to, though, if they can find a winning strategy against a field that will become more diverse.
-Leonin Arbiter: Not even out yet and he’s a winner! Gush decks love Fetches (especially now w/ Misty Rainforest) and Tutors (don’t be surprised to see an increased use of Imperial Seal). Toss him on the pile of G/W creatures who are feeling the love.
-Tunnel Ingus: Speaking of cards not out yet. Tunnel Ingus could become the Red Mage’s best sideboard card if Gush gets too far out of hand. His application is narrow, so don’t look for him outside of burn decks featuring Ankh of Mishra and Runeflare Trap unless things get really serious.
-Blood Moon Effects: Historically, Gush decks have relied a great deal on non-basics. If that tradition holds true, Magus and his enchantment friend will make their way back to the tournament scene after a two year absence.
-Red Blast Effects: Already pretty strong, these will become important sideboard cards in the near future.
-Disenchant Effects: How good will Nature’s Claim, Seal of Primordium, Seal of Cleansing, and Krosan Grip be now? Yikes!
-Mystic Remora: Where was this thing three years ago? This is the Mana Drain Player’s key card if Gush really takes off…. well, along with Trygon and Nature’s Claim, of course. Look for Remora Jace/Tez decks to emerge if Gush decks become a significant player.
-Trinisphere: I think the debate over whether or not Trinisphere belongs in Shop decks along with Thorn, Resistor, and Golem is over. It’ll be too important to get a spell hoser out on turn 1 now.
-Doomsday: Or at least, I hope. This was my favorite iteration of Gush back during the Golden Age. Here’s to it rising once again.
-Lotus Cobra: He was just starting to emerge his head from the ground in Time Vault decks. Now, Gush decks may be well poised to take advantage of his ability. I think after the initial dalliances with Tyrant Oath, Serpent Gush will be the next big archetype.
-Tropical Island: Most important land in Vintage now?
-Extirpate: What happens when all the top decks switch from Highlander to 4-of’s? Extirpate gets really good. Don’t expect this card to matter right away. Check back in four months or so.
-The 6th Pillar: Yes, Gush itself is a winner! After two years of heavy lobbying by myself and others, it’s back. While the DCI may regard Fish, Mana Drain, and Gush decks as one Pillar under the ubiquitous Force of Will, the Vintage community sees it differently. For those who like deckbuilding choices and diversity, they win big with this decision.
Now the Potential Losers:
-Mana Drain Decks: I still think they’ll be the best deck in the meta, at least for a while. But now they’ll have two equals- MUD and Gush. It’ll be a three way battle at the top. But the era of Mana Drain’s sole dominance ends today.
-Dark Ritual Decks: Gush crowds in on the Tendrils Combo design space for decks. There’s a lot of incentive to run lots of blue cards in Vintage. If a Gush Tendrils deck shows promise, I think a lot of those still playing TPS will switch. It’s been a long drought for Dark Ritual, and it seemed as if GenCon ’10 was the beginning of a renewal in Ritual combo. But alas, it may be short lived.
-Terrastadon: Iona and Tyrant will probably become the Oath creatures of choice. There may be some room left for him, tho.
-Emrakul, The Aeons Torn: Nobody’s gonna mess around with him in Oath now that better options are available.
-Null Rod: If Gush makes a significant move to the top tier, then Null Rod becomes less attractive. It already is marginal vs. Oath and MUD and useless vs. Dredge. Gush decks run light on artifact mana, so it could mean that Fishy decks have to look elsewhere for their disruption package. Pithing Needle, maybe?
-Juggernaut: Just not playable anymore. Not disruptive enough in this meta. We’ll have to move on to something else.
Finally, those Who Aren’t Really Affected:
-Dredge Decks: Dredge doesn’t care. It’s gameplan is the same almost now matter what the rest of the meta is doing. It could be a borderline winner if people move towards stacking 4 Leyline of the Voids in their SB to deny Gush a big Yawg’s Will, but I see that as unlikely.
-Belcher: Never really a player anyway. Still can have a good time, though regardless of who’s at the top.
-Hurkyl’s Recall: Everyone’s favorite mass artifact bounce will still be as good going forward as it has been recently. Despite the fact that Gush doesn’t play a lot of artifact mana, Shop and Drain decks still will. I do expect some more experimentation with Echoing Truth or Rushing River, but Hurkyl’s will remain a sideboard staple for at least the next four to six months (not to mention we’re smack in the middle of a new artifact block).
-90% of Magic Players: Many of whom have never even heard of Vintage.
It’s not certain yet, at this very early stage, that much will change at all. I suspect Gush will be good, but I have no proof. It could flop. The standard tools that we loved in the second Gush era like Brainstorm, Merchant Scroll, and Ponder are all restricted. Preordain is a very slow and weak replacement for them. It will be very interesting to see what happens next.
Peace,
-Troy
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